Monday, 23 June 2014

2014 NHL Mock Draft: Picks 11 - 20



By Steven Ives

11) Nashville Predators
The Team: Since their incarnation in 1998, the Predators have been coached by Barry Trotz and built their team on smothering defensive play. After 16 years, Nashville has finally decided to open things up a bit. After firing Trotz, they hired the more offensively-minded Peter Laviolette and seem intent on acquiring more skilled players. This makes the 2014 draft an interesting one to watch for the Preds.

The Pick: LW/RW Kevin Fiala, HV71, SWE Nashville would love to draft a first-line center to build around, but any team would be thrilled to land the Swiss dynamo Fiala. The explosive winger with sick hands rocketed up the draft charts all season long by dominating virtually every international tournament he played in. Fiala has been compared by major scouting sources to Phil Kessel and Alex Semin, two players who topped the 40-goal plateau at the NHL level, and it is not a stretch to conceive of the quick and ultra-skilled Fiala doing the same. The young winger needs only to work on controlling his turnovers and overall defensive play. Still, if the Predators are truly committed to upping the offensive ante, Fiala would be an outstanding bet for them.

12) Phoenix Coyotes
The Team: When researching NHL teams’ draft tendencies, it is impossible not to gvet a kick out of the Coyotes’ penchant for picking sons of former NHL stars. Two years ago they selected Ulf Samuelsson’s son Henrik in the first round, last year they spent their top pick on Tie Domi’s son Max. Unfortunately for them, Michael Nylander’s son is expected to be long gone when they pick 12th and Claude Lemieux and Sami Kapanen’s kids might be a bit of a reach there.

The Pick: LW Brendan Perlini, Niagara, OHL Perlini’s size (6’3”, 210) and speed combination are impossible to ignore. He uses his huge body and athleticism to dominate the dirty areas, in the corners and in the crease. He has the skill-set and hands to develop into a first-line power forward at the NHL level and draws comparisons to Jeff Carter. The only factors potentially driving the extremely projectable Perlini out of the top ten are a bit of a late season decline in play combined with the emergence of Ehlers and Fleury. Still, it would not be shocking to see Perlini go as early as the sixth pick, and if he falls to the legacy-minded Coyotes, they can at least console themselves that Brendan’s father was drafted by the Maple Leafs in 1980 and played eight games at the NHL level.

13) Washington Capitals
The Team: It is always most difficult to predict what a team will do at the draft after they change over the front office. Long-time GM George McPhee and head coach Adam Oates were dumped during the off-season. Brian MacLellan takes over the general managing duties and a team with unbelievable talent on the scoring lines (Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov) but holes virtually everywhere else. The goaltending is weak all throughout the organization and the blueline desperately needs a boost beyond the top pairing of John Carlson and Kyle Alzner.

The Pick: D Travis Sanheim, Calgary WHL Sanheim is the perfect example of why this draft is difficult to predict. The highly-respected ISS scouting bureau has him ranked 53rd in the 2014 draft class. The Hockey News has him listed at 21st. TSN.com has him 8th. That is quite an uncommon range. As for us, we don’t see what’s not to like about this kid – he’s big, he can skate, he has terrific puck skills. Sanheim came on strong all season long, seemingly improving his overall game with each shift he was on the ice. The young blueliner has been compared to a wide range of players from Jay Bouwmeester to Johnny Boychuk and has been rumored to have been scouted heavily by the Caps. Look for new GM MacLellan to re-build his team from the backline out, and Sanheim should be the best available d-man here.

14) Dallas Stars
The Team: The Stars scored a major coup last off-season when they pick-pocketed the Bruins for young star center Tyler Seguin. Along with Jamie Benn, these two form the nucleus of one of the most dangerous offensive lines in the league, a combo Dallas hopes could be their version of Getzlaf-Perry for seasons to come. What the Stars seek in the 2014 draft is more forward depth around those two, along with some defensemen with top-pairing upside.

The Pick: C Jared McCann, Sault Ste. Marie OHL The franchise first-line center may be the most valuable commodity in today’s NHL, but do not discount the value of a big-bodied, two-way second-line pivot. McCann is that kid who it is impossible to read a scouting report on without coming across the words “smart” and “hard-working”. He does it all -- blocking shots, winning draws, battling for loose pucks. Though he will never challenge for an NHL scoring title, he certainly has the upside to contribute 50-60 points at the NHL level. Compared flatteringly to Patrice Bergeron, McCann is the type of player you win with, and the perfect kid for the Stars to build their second line around.

15) Detroit Red Wings
The Team: Superlative statements which might sound subjective in most cases come off as simply self-evident when talking about the Wings. GM Ken Holland is a genius, Detroit’s hockey franchise is one of the most successful in the entire sporting world. A consecutive post-season streak of an astounding 23 seasons and an NHL-best four Stanley Cup championships in the past two decades support these theories quite well. As always, the Holland’s Red Wings will draft the best available player regardless of need with every draft pick, as always some of these picks will surprise the pundits, as always several of these picks will turn out to be absolutely terrific hockey players in Detroit.

The Pick: C/LW Dylan Larkin, US-NTDP USHL My favorite description of one of my favorite players in this draft comes from courtesy of the scouts at Future Considerations: “he is a high-compete, high-intelligence, three-zone center”. That might say it all. Larkin far from the most talented player in this draft, but he is one of the best skaters and he could be the smartest player. You can watch this kid game after game without seeing him make a single mistake or slack off the intensity for even a fraction of a shift. With most players there is a ceiling and a floor to their talent levels – with Larkin the upside might be of a very good second-line center, but because of his off-the-charts character his floor is of a very good third-line center. The can’t-miss NHL-er hails from the Detroit area and grew up rooting for the Red Wings, a franchise which built its success on intelligent players like Larkin.

16) Columbus Blue Jackets
The Team: The Jackets’ brain trust came from the St. Louis Blues organization, where they built a great team on physical, two-way players with size. In Columbus, they reached this year’s post-season using a similar blueprint. A long-time NHL doormat, the Blue Jackets now pride themselves on being a huge and physical team which is extremely difficult to play against. 

The Pick: RW Alex Tuch, US-NTDP USHL
This kid’s last name actually rhymes with “truck”, which is a fairly apt description of what he looks and plays like. At 6’4” and 220 and with terrific athleticism, he is virtually impossible to beat in the corners or to move from the front of the net. He is simply a force down low, but it is the completeness of his game which makes him a surefire first-rounder. Compared to Blake Wheeler, this physical force is precisely the type of player Columbus hopes to build their team around.

17) Philadelphia Flyers
The Team: Since Chris Pronger’s career was tragically cut short by post-concussion syndrome, the Flyers have desperately sought a true #1 defenseman to replace him. In the 2013 draft they desperately wanted Rasmus Ristolainen, whom was taken just ahead of them by Buffalo. After this, they seemed to panic a bit by reaching for large-bodied project Samuel Morin when they could have had the most Pronger-like prospect in years in Nikita Zadorov. New GM Ron Hextall needs to resist the temptation to reach for another defenseman in a thin draft for blueliners and instead take the best available player.

The Pick: RW/LW Kasperi Kapanen, Kalpa, FIN Kapanen is another player who divides scouts. Some have him in their top ten due to his outstanding skating and playmaking skills combined with an NHL-ready one-timer. Others have him dropping near the second round due to some inconsistency in his game and the fact that he can become visibly frustrated when opponents amp up the physical game on him. The Flyers would certainly love to take a chance on his upside of NHL scoring star, and Kasperi’s father Sami starred in Philadelphia for several seasons. Kasperi would make perfect sense here, where he could project to a top-line role alongside Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek.

18) Minnesota Wild
The Team: Over the past two seasons, the Wild have transformed themselves from perennially mediocre into what looks like an annual Western Conference contender. The first step towards this achievement was certainly the twin free-agent signings of superstars Ryan Suter and Zach Parise, but last year they supplemented the pair with some terrific young talents like Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle and Erik Haula. This team is solid all across the organization at every position, except in goal where Josh Harding’s struggles with Multiple Sclerosis has left them with several questions between the pipes.

The Pick: G Thatcher Demko, Boston College NCAA There are generally two schools of thought in the NHL right now regarding drafting goalies in the first round: don’t do it and you better not blow it if you do. This year’s Stanley Cup battle featured two netminders often considered the best in the world: Henrik Lundqvist, with his Olympic gold medal and Vezina Trophy, was a 7th round pick by the Rangers in 2000, while Jonathan Quick, with his pair of Stanley Cups, was a 3rd round pick by the Kings back in 2005. With projecting the future success of goaltenders so inexact, many teams would rather roll the dice on one later in the draft. It takes a special type of goaltending prospect to buck this trend, but Demko is precisely that special type of prospect. Demko has a rare combination of size (6’4”, 190), athleticism, maturity and smarts which has led to him not only winning the starting job at Boston College as a freshman (a rare feat), but also dominating older NCAA competition for long stretches. It would not be surprising at all to look back on this draft in a decade and realize the best player in the class was Demko. The question is not whether a team should risk a first-rounder with this kid, it is whether a team looking for a future goaltender can afford to pass on him. If Minnesota does not make this pick, it is a strong bet that a team like Buffalo or Washington starts working the phones trying to move up into the late first-round for a crack at future franchise goalie Thatcher Demko.

19) Tampa Bay Lightning
The Team: Under the leadership of GM Steve Yzerman, the Lightning have a very bright future. Already armed with a franchise player in Steve Stamkos, last year Tampa enjoyed major breakthroughs from several players. Ben Bishop took the step from prospect goalie to Vezina Trophy candidate. Viktor Hedman finally emerged as an elite, top-pairing NHL defenseman. Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson were only outshined among rookie forwards by Nathan McKinnon. There is more talent coming through the pipeline, where Andrey Vasilevskiy is the top young goalie in Europe and Jonathan Drouin is the top scoring prospect not currently in the NHL. If Tampa needs anything, it is to restock more depth on the blueline, but with two first-round picks in the 2014, that should be addressed quickly.

The Pick: C/LW Robby Fabbri, Guelph OHL Expect the Lightning to take the best available player with their first pick and then take a defenseman with the second. Fabbri is another small, skilled player with inconsistent rankings among the scouting bureaus – some have him in the top ten due to his blinding speed, tenacity, and electrifying scoring skills. Others have him closer to the second round, due to his rail-thin 160-pounds on a 5’10” frame which lead many to believe his future is not at center, but on the wing. We say here that Fabbri’s fearlessness and pure goal-scoring ability evoke shades of Zach Parise, and he may not even make it this deep into the draft.

20) San Jose Sharks
The Team: The Sharks’ annual ritual of outstanding regular seasons and ensuing playoff disappointments hit a crescendo this spring, after San Jose blew a 3-0 lead over the Kings. GM Doug Wilson promised major changes in the off-season and even dropped the dreaded R-word: rebuilding. Though it would be foolish for such a quality team to go through an absolute overhaul, the Sharks do need to make a major move. Expect cornerstones Joe Thornton and Antti Niemi to stay, along with their ultra-talented young nucleus of Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture, Thomas Hertl and Marc-Andre Vlasic. The player we expect to see shipped elsewhere is Patrick Marleau, rumored to have been in talks with the Islanders for the 5th overall pick or with the Leafs for Dion Phaneuf. 

The Pick: RW Josh Ho-Sang, Windsor, OHL The buttoned-down, business-like Sharks have fallen in the playoffs to more intense teams for several seasons in a row. There are few more intense than Ho-Sang, who we like to call Josh Ho-Highlight. This kid ricochets all over the offensive zone like a rabid pinball, and there is no one in this draft with a greater ability to turn a routine zone entry into a highlight-reel goal. The fact that Ho-Sang is always thinking goal leads to some glitzy plays, but also some head-scratching turnovers which have falsely garnered him the reputation among some pundits as a selfish player. Ho-Sang’s flash and dash and off-the-charts offensive skill remind us of a young Pavel Bure, and he is the kind of player San Jose could use to amp the electricity in their arena.

Sunday, 22 June 2014

2014 NHL Mock Draft: Picks 1 - 10

By Steven Ives

Steven has sent me his detailed prediction of how the first round of the 2014 NHL Entry Draft should play out. The first ten picks have been covered in this post, while picks 11-20 and 21-30 will be covered in posts this week. Enjoy, and comment away ...  - Ian 

The stage where Bettman gets booed

What the 2014 draft lacks in sheer sparkle, it makes up for in intrigue. It is difficult to recall a draft with a greater amount of the proverbial “boom or bust” prospect, and major draft ratings bureaus are absolutely all over the board with some of these young players. While it is not uncommon to see, for example,  the ISS rank a player at 8th and the Red Line Report rank that same player at 18th, the 2014 draft has players ranked in the top ten on one draft board and not until the mid-second round on another. This rare occurrence is relatively unique to this draft.

The class of 2014 also contains an aberrant amount of highly-skilled but undersized forwards. While this serves as a testament to the NHL’s moving away from a more physical but lumbering game and towards a speedier and more skill-oriented product, the sheer number of players in the Patrick Kane and Martin St. Louis molds is somewhat staggering: William Nylander, Nikolaj Ehlers, Robby Fabbri, Sonny Milano, Josh Ho-Sang, Nick Schmaltz, Jakub Vrana, Kasperi Kapanen, Brayden Point and so on. While all of these players have top-ten pick-worthy NHL skill, none of them have ideal size and it is possible to project them being selected anywhere from the top-five until late in the second round.

Lastly, a note on mock drafts. While I am generally more accurate than some purported sports-media outlets (ESPN? You hear? Maybe stick to fluff stories on LeBron’s toe-nail clipper and Johnny Manziel’s iPod playlist and leave the sports-writing to the non-lobotomized ), the purpose of my writing this is not to prove myself as some modern-day Nostradamus. It is generally geared to give the reader a ballpark idea of where players will be drafted, along with descriptions of the skill-sets they offer and the corresponding needs of the teams which will be drafting them. So, without further ado…

1) Florida Panthers
The Team: Panthers’ GM Dale Tallon has been heavily rumored to be shopping this pick. In a draft short on high-end defensemen, the Barrie Colts’ young blueline phenom Aaron Ekblad has several teams kicking the tires on what it would take to entice him to deal the top overall pick. Several teams have been rumored to be offering their own first-round picks along with established players in order to move up to the top pick, among them Edmonton, Toronto and Carolina. 

The Pick: D Aaron Ekblad, Barrie, OHL The Panthers are set at center for the foreseeable future with young studs Sasha Barkov and Nick Bjugstad. Their in-season trade for Roberto Luongo solidified their goaltending situation. Though they have a good deal of second and third pairing young talent on the blueline with Erik Gudbranson, Dylan Olsen, Ian McCoshen and Mike Matheson – what they truly lack is a bona fide #1 stud to build their defense corps around. Ekblad represents exactly that: a 6’4”, 230 lb. behemoth with terrific skating ability, the hockey sense and demeanor of an NHL veteran, and a slap-shot from the point which registers on the Richter Scale. It might be wiser for the Panthers to eschew all trade possibilities and just draft this burgeoning star with Chris Pronger-like upside.

2) Buffalo Sabres
The Team: The Sabres’ aggressive rebuilding effort has yielded a bounty of young talent and draft picks which have many people thinking they are just a few years away from becoming the next Chicago Blackhawks or Pittsburgh Penguins. Their 2013 draft-table bonanza landed them not one but two franchise defensemen in Nikita Zadorov and Rasmus Ristolainen, along with a young Ryan Callahan-clone in J.T. Compher. What they need now is a franchise center to build their top-line around, and the second overall pick should leave them a trio of such players to choose from.

The Pick: C Sam Reinhart, Kootenay, WHL The general scouting consensus has the top two centers as being a toss-up choice of Sams. The WHL’s Sam Reinhart is a sublime talent who reminds us of Adam Oates – he is an outstanding passer who plays a responsible two-way game with virtually no weaknesses. The OHL’s Sam Bennett is a gritty wolverine on skates who reminds virtually everyone of Doug Gilmour – he is an outstanding playmaker who will just as soon go through an opponent as around them despite his modest stature. Though Buffalo has been rumored in the hockey media to be leaning towards Bennett, we say here they go for Reinhart – a more NHL-ready product who is more likely to stay up the middle than Bennett, who many foresee as best utilized on the left wing.

3) Edmonton Oilers
The Team: Despite numerous high draft picks in the past decade (including three top overall picks), the Oilers have built a team which lacks size and speed and does not seem even on the verge of competing for a Stanley Cup. New Edmonton GM Craig MacTavish has done a fine job repairing their gaping hole in net with the promising duo of Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth, but the Oilers still need a #1 defenseman and a #1 center with size, two core-building elements which are very difficult to come by in today’s NHL. Edmonton has been heavily rumored to be hot after Florida’s top overall pick with the idea of taking Ekblad to build the defense around, dangling the third overall pick and the extremely talented but equivalently mismanaged forward Nail Yakupov as bait.

The Pick: C Leon Draisaitl, Prince Albert, OHL If Ekblad and Reinhart go one-two as we predict, the Oilers will be faced with a choice of Sam Bennett or Leon Draisaitl. Though not necessarily better, Draisaitl is bigger (6’2”, 205 lbs) and stronger than Bennett (6’0”, 175 lbs) and fills a franchise need for size up the middle while also offering the talent and tools necessary to become an absolute force in the NHL. A virtual lock to be the highest-drafted German-born player in the history of the NHL, Draisaitl is a two-way beast who is a master at protecting the puck in traffic. Often compared to Anze Kopitar, Draisaitl actually lacks that sort of skating speed, which may the only knock on his game. However, the young German has more of a mean streak, a quality the Oilers desperately covet on their scoring lines.

4) Calgary Flames
The Team: Newly appointed GM Brad Treliving hopes to give some stability to a Calgary front office which has lacked it for quite some time. He comes from a Phoenix organization which built teams based on skating speed and defensive acumen. In order to achieve this, the Flames are going to need to find themselves a franchise netminder in the near future, but Treliving inherits a franchise with some intriguing pieces to work with. On the blueline, Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie have established themselves as a top pairing to build around. At wing, there is terrific talent in the pipeline with Sven Baertschi, Morgan Klimchuk, Emile Poirier and the undersized but sublimely skilled Johnny Gaudreau. Most importantly, the 2013 draft landed them a franchise center in blooming superstar Sean Monahan.

The Pick: C/LW Sam Bennett, Kingston, OHL The Flames were the organization which developed and won a Stanley Cup with the great Doug Gilmour, and they would be thrilled to draft a player considered to be the second coming of the Hall-of-Famer. Bennett plays the game with an infectious tenacity and a motor which never stops, he is like a cyborg wolverine on skates. He never gives up on a puck in the offensive or defensive zone, making him impossible to not love for a fan, coach or teammate. What makes him rare is that his third-line digger heart is in the body of ridiculously talented player. Bennett’s creativity with the puck is astounding, his wrist shot is like heat-seeking laser beam, and he can skate the lights out. This generation of fans never had the pleasure of seeing Doug Gilmour play hockey -- we’re saying here they will get to see this very similar player in the same jersey Gilmour began his career in.

5) New York Islanders
The Team: Okay, this is the Islanders. Take the worst trade your favorite team has ever made – the Islanders have made ten trades that bad in the past decade. The latest was the Tomas Vanek debacle – (somehow an NHL) GM Garth Snow gave up the very good Matt Moulson along with a first and second round draft pick to rent the one-dimensional scorer for a few months and then held out too long at the trading deadline before shipping him off to Montreal for equivalently as much as the Sabres received for Moulson. Faced with the prospect of giving up the #5 pick in the 2014 draft or their first-rounder in the potentially franchise-changing 2015 draft, Snow kept the 2014 pick. Due to this, the Islanders are absolutely desperate not to be a lottery team in 2015. It would be catastrophic for the franchise to give up a top-three pick in a draft with a trio of generational talents in McDavid, Eichel and Hanifin. Thus, the Islanders have made off-season deals acquiring the rights to goaltender Jaroslav Halak and defenseman Dan Boyle – and it is extremely likely they trade this pick for immediate help as well. The Islanders loss of Moulson and Vanek leaves them with a severe need for a top-line left wing to skate alongside John Tavaras and Kyle Okposo. It would not be a shock to see the Isles deal this pick for Winnipeg’s Evander Kane or San Jose’s Patrick Marleau, both reportedly available in the off-season trade market.

The Pick: LW Michael Dal Colle, Oshawa, OHL Assuming (because we have to) the Isles hang onto this pick, at fifth overall they should have the opportunity to take the best left wing in the draft, a player who could ride shotgun with superstar John Tavares in a season or two. Dal Colle is big and strong at 6’2” and 180, has a rocket of a shot and terrific playmaking ability. He plays a well above-average all-around game for a sniper of his age and pedigree and has been compared to players as varied as James Van Riemsdyk, Bobby Ryan and Alex Kovalev. Though Dal Colle is a carbon copy of none of them, he combines elements of all of them and is a surefire first-line stud down the line for whomever is lucky enough to tab him in the 2014 draft.

6) Vancouver Canucks
The Team: The Canucks have made a litany of terrible decisions in the past two years to turn them from a perennial contender into a lottery team. First, they fired a terrific head coach in Alain Vigneault and replaced him with the incompetent and alienating John Tortorella. Second, faced with an embarrassment of riches in goal with Roberto Luongo and Corey Schneider, they dealt the upcoming Schneider while hanging onto the older and higher-paid Luongo. Then they shipped off Luongo leaving them barren in goal. They are now faced with the problem of fixing management, finding a solution in net, and re-signing all sorts of Sedins while shopping stud center Ryan Kesler who asked off this sinking ship for the chance to play with a contender.

The Pick: C/RW William Nylander,  Modo, SWE The Canucks have built a strong Swedish culture in their organization, icing a team headlined by the Sedin twins and Alex Edler among others. Nylander is the best Sweden has to offer in this year’s draft, along with arguably the highest offensive upside in the draft. An explosive skater with dazzling puck skills, Nylander would be a top-five pick were it not for questions about his size (5’11”, 170) and attitude – on occasion Nylander can play a pouty game if his teammates and the referees underperform in his estimation. All of these positives and negatives make Nylander remind us of Claude Giroux, a player whose occasional gaffes are more than offset by his standing as a fixture among the NHL scoring leaderboard.

7) Carolina Hurricanes
The Team: New ‘Canes GM Ron Francis has his work cut out for him. Long-time GM Jim Rutherford made a habit of drafting almost exclusively forwards in the first round, then going after defenders and netminders later. This has left Carolina with a plethora of talent up front (Eric Staal, Jordan Staal, Jeff Skinner, Elias Lindholm) but question marks all over the organization in goal and on the blueline.

The Pick: D Hayden Fleury, Red Deer, WHL The 2014 draft is loaded with defensemen who are loaded with question marks. There are only two surefire top-pairing studs. The first, Aaron Ekblad, has received considerable and well-deserved hype and is the safe bet to go first overall. The second is Hayden Fleury. There is nothing not to like about this kid – he combines NHL size (6’3”, 200) with NHL skating while boasting an NHL caliber point shot and terrific skating ability. He rarely gets caught out of position and has the perfect combination of heart and smarts to develop into a key minute-muncher at the NHL level.

8) Toronto Maple Leafs
The Team: I overheard an argument the other day that Mad Men was a soap opera. I recall thinking that the Maple Leafs are both a soap opera and madmen. Seemingly under new management on a bi-monthly basis, the latest incarnation of Leafs’ leadership is headlined by Brendan Shanahan, a brilliant man with a tough task at hand. Can he take a team with a rabid fan-base full of frustrations out of perennial mediocrity? He has a terrific young goalie (Jonathan Bernier) and a couple of shining young stars (Phil Kessel, James Van Riemsdyk) to work with, but the Leafs have long lacked a top-line center and sufficient scoring depth. Thus, they have been heavily rumored to be attempting to trade up into the draft’s top four for a chance at one of the big three centers: Reinhart, Bennett and Draisaitl.

The Pick: LW Nick Ritchie, Peterborough, OHL Every team covets a power forward, a big-bodied scoring winger who plays like a bull in a china shop. The 6’4”, 235 Ritchie takes that model and one-ups it – he plays like a T-Rex in a Faberge egg shop. His OHL highlight-reel is jarring, the freakishly strong Ritchie is such a physical beast he simply goes through opposing defenses as if he is playing amongst children. Ritchie is thus often compared to Boston brutalizer Milan Lucic, although Ritchie may have even more offensive skill and is somewhat less threatening in the handshake line. Though it is highly likely to us that the Leafs trade up in the draft, if they remain at #8 Ritchie is the type of power forward they traditionally love and swung and missed on with David Clarkson in the 2013 free agent market. 

9) Winnipeg Jets
The Team: The Jets have been somewhat maligned in the hockey media for failing to make the playoffs since their return to Winnipeg. Yet the fact remains that they iced an extremely good team last season which arguably only missed the playoffs due to their poor play in goal, where Ondrej Pavelec struggled for much of the season. The Jets’ biggest mistake may have been not making a play for Jonathan Bernier prior to the season, and we might see them use the draft not only to select a future star but also to trade for an established netminder, having been linked in the media to Carolina’s Cam Ward.

The Pick: LW Nikolaj Ehlers, Halifax, QMJHL While the Jets’ top need is for a franchise goalie, drafting netminders often amounts as much to voodoo as to science, and thus it is unlikely Winnipeg spends such a high pick on that position. It is more likely they go for the best available player, whom in this scenario would be Ehlers. We are saying here that Ehlers has the greatest offensive upside in the draft, greater than the big-three centers or Nylander. He is simply a magician with the puck and likely the best skater in the draft. There is a great deal of Patrick Kane in Ehlers’ game, though it is probably safer to compare him to his teammate in Halifax, future Tampa Bay star Jonathan Drouin. Though, like many in this draft, there are questions about his size (5’11”, 160) and defensive play, Ehlers’ arsenal of stickhandling moves is downright mind-boggling.

10) Anaheim Ducks
The Team: The Ducks have an embarrassment of riches right now. Already a deep, big and fast team which looks to annually compete for Lord Stanley’s Cup behind superstars Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf, next year they are giving the goaltending duties to mega-prospect John Gibson, the top prospect in the entire NHL according to the good folks at The Hockey News. Add to that a plethora of picks in the 2014 draft: the Ducks own the tenth pick as a result of the Bobby Ryan trade with Ottawa last year in addition to their own (#24) pick and two picks in the second round (#38, #55). Desiring a big, two-way second-line center to slot behind Getzlaf (Kesler? Spezza?) and loaded with picks and prospects, the Ducks strike us as the most likely team to pull off a huge trade at the 2014 draft. 

The Pick: LW Jake Virtanen, Calgary WHL Assuming (because we have to) Anaheim hangs onto this pick, they can afford to take a chance on Virtanen. The mega-talented power-forward has dropped in many pundits’ draft estimation due to shoulder surgery which will sideline him for the upcoming season, but Virtanen might be worth the wait. A terrific offensive force who can score and pass with NHL precision, Virtanen is also a tremendous skater who plays with an edge to his game. This tantalizing combination has garnered him comparisons to Jarome Iginla and Corey Perry though he may lack the two-way game and, apparently, durability of those two future Hall-of-Famers. Still, his massive upside and skill-set have Virtanen as a wild-card in this draft, a player who could go as early as sixth overall.

Picks 11 - 20 and 21 - 30 to follow...

Wednesday, 4 June 2014

Look to Veterans for Keeper Value

It seems counter intuitive to target veterans for a keeper league team, but this was one strategy that was instrumental in helping me win the keeper league that I previously mentioned. After all, it makes more sense to acquire a star rookie with an entire Hall of Fame career ahead of him. Think Nathan MacKinnon (hey, no pressure at all, kid) or whoever the next shiny new toy will be this coming season.

I knew during the last offseason that I would probably be losing one of Tyler Seguin and Jordan Eberle, who were players I could retain on rookie contracts for the first few years of their careers. As it turned out, needs at other positions resulted in me losing both players to much, much higher bids from other teams. Any team with that kind of loss seems doomed, right? Not so fast.

The impending loss of Eberle meant that I had a hole to fill at right wing, so I performed my best Dale Tallon impression (literally). I decided to sign Marian Hossa to a five-year contract offer, which like his real-life contract, will expire after he hits the big 4-0. You might be thinking, is this guy nuts? Well, yes and no. I don't expect Hossa to produce at a near point-per-game level at that stage like he is now. However, like the real-life NHL, stretching out Hossa's contract means less of a cap hit each year in this fantasy league. I had only thrown out the five-year contract as a tactic to force another league member into a more difficult spot if they really wanted Hossa, but as it turned out I had to use the contract offer that I made. But I am more interested in winning now than winning a few years from now, so this contract would simply be the cost of doing business.

The previous offseason, I was so surprised that no one was that interested in Patrick Marleau as a free agent. Sure, he's also in his 30s, but left wingers who consistently score 30 goals a season don't exactly grow on trees (only eight managed to last season, and no left winger reached 40 goals). Marleau and Hossa each have multiple years left on their contracts with my team, so they are a major part of my plan going forward.

Not all veteran keepers pan out. I have expensive expiring contracts on Johan Franzen and Dan Boyle, both of whom experienced diminishing returns this past season to go with their relatively advancing age. I will only plan to re-sign either player if the price drops on the open market.

So the next time you think keeper league, think Jaromir Jagr. And no, this is not a blog from 1992.

Saturday, 3 May 2014

Ensure Your Roster Has Depth

Real-life hockey teams with depth are able to withstand enough injuries during the regular season to make the playoffs, a major reason that the Canucks didn't make it in this season. As well, teams that win the Stanley Cup also have the depth to withstand the grind that is the Stanley Cup playoffs with the lengthy overtimes and facing the same opponent again and again.

Fantasy lineups that win championships also need to be solid from top to bottom. Is your lineup strong in all areas? Which areas are your weak points, and how much will they be exposed when facing the top team(s) in a head-to-head matchup? How likely will you be to catching the team ahead of you in a roto category?

Back in October, I referenced one fantasy team that faced eight different injuries at one time (My Fantasy Team Is More Injured Than Your Fantasy Team). In that situation, it is easy to give up on the season or at least get lazy with your team. I didn't give up, and I was rewarded with a championship. But it's not a simple dilemma, and some careful planning and creative thought is needed.

For starters, know how many IR slots are allowed in your league. In this league, I was lucky enough to have an unlimited number, but this is not the case in most other leagues. If you happen to have more injured players than IR slots (or bench slots if there is no IR in your league), keep your injured elite and cut the rest, unless the injured player is only day-to-day. In the end, make sure that you are filling your starting lineup with active players who can contribute positive numbers to your team.

If you own a particular player who has a high propensity for injury, ensure that you have a strong backup on your bench at the ready once the next injury surfaces. If one of your roster weaknesses is positional, perhaps hold two players at that position and start/sit based on matchups (or keep one player at that position each week and continually add/drop at that position.) In regard to the waiver wire (which I wrote about last week), be sure to check if any player on your waiver wire is stronger than the worst player currently on your roster (or at that position). By repeating these moves over time, you are continually improving the value of your team.

Also, if you are in a salary cap league, always have some money left over to add players from your waiver wire. I'll discuss this at greater length in my next blog post, but it's those waiver-wire finds that far surpass expectations that can provide your roster with the much-needed depth to win.

In the end, it might be wise not to judge your fantasy team on who your best players are, but instead who your worst players are.

Saturday, 26 April 2014

Use Your Waiver Wire Constantly

If you've played in fantasy leagues for any length of time, I'm again stating the obvious. But to reinforce my point, here's a stat that one of my leaguemates in an Experts League pointed out:

Top three teams (1 - 3): 182 combined transactions, average 60 transactions per team
Remaining teams (4 - 12): 142 combined transactions, average 18 transactions per team

I finished in fourth place in this league with 17 total transactions, so perhaps I would have improved my standing if I had used the waiver wire more often. But in the keeper league that I won, I credit using the waiver wire as one of my keys to success.

The team that wins isn't necessarily the one that uses the waiver wire the most often. But there is something to be said about regular waiver-wire users being more involved in their league. These are the owners that are continuously attempting to improve their teams.

I've believed for years that waiver-wire transactions are much more beneficial for your team than trades. Using the waiver wire means that you have complete control over adds and drops, whereas it takes two to make a fantasy trade happen (not to mention that the other owner is often trying to gain the upper hand.) Your waiver wire can help you exploit matchups, maximize games played, and ride hot streaks.

Here is a list of players that I added from the waiver wire in my fantasy leagues this season, placed into several categories:

No respect for future Hall of Famers?
Jarome Iginla
Daniel Alfredsson (in a deep league)
Teemu Selanne (fading)

The significantly effective adds
James Wisniewski
David Perron
Jaden Schwartz

Backups who became starters this season
Steve Mason
Eddie Lack
Frederik Andersen

The trendy adds
Gustav Nyqvist
Tomas Hertl
Evgeny Kuznetsov

The surprisingly effective adds (due to scoring system)
Jason Demers
Tommy Wingels
Olli Maatta

Found on the waiver wire in more than one league
Mike Cammalleri
Kevin Bieksa
Torey Krug

Use your waiver wire constantly to get the most out of your fantasy team!

Saturday, 19 April 2014

Know Your Scoring System Inside and Out

Hello again. I know that it's been awhile, but I've been focusing on work and family interests for the last little while. But now that fantasy numbers are standing still (but the playoffs are very much alive and well), I now have the opportunity to study the season that was.

As I tweeted last night, I'm going to write about some tips, based on a keeper fantasy league that I finally won this season (and a few others that I didn't win thrown in there too). My first tip is Captain Obvious for those of you who have been playing fantasy leagues for awhile, but it bears repeating because of its importance: Know your scoring system inside and out.

For example, this particular league awards more points for defensemen than forwards in goals and assists. Having a defenseman like Kris Letang absent for over half the season would normally be crippling, but you can absorb the loss when you receive a somewhat expected 50-point season from Alex Pietrangelo and an completely unexpected 50-point season from James Wisniewski. Applying this particular scoring system, Pietrangelo and Wisnewski were the two players that earned me the most points this season. With goals being worth even more than assists, super sleeper Tyson Barrie and his 13 goals paid significant dividends, especially during the second half of the season.

Another interesting scoring observation was at the position of goaltender. Because this particular scoring system subtracts points for goals allowed and losses, there is arguably less benefit from owning a starting goalie on a bad team than there is from owning a backup on a good team. Would any of us have expected Frederik Andersen to be better than Cam Ward at the start of the season? As it turned out, both goalies played about the same number of games and recorded around the same number of saves, but Andersen earned over double the number of points because he recorded twice as many wins and allowed just under one fewer goal per game. Interestingly enough, Andersen's fantasy stock should continue to rise the longer he and the Ducks manage to stick around during the playoffs.

Another great example is in leagues that count non-standard stats, such as hits and blocked shots (not this particular league). If you have to fill up, say six defense slots on a team, like I did in an experts league, it wouldn't hurt to add someone like Radko Gudas (273 hits, third in NHL) or Andrew MacDonald (242 blocked shots, first in NHL). Both of these d-men were owned in less than one-third of Yahoo leagues. If your league counts both hits and blocked shots, the little-owned Ben Lovejoy, Mark Stuart, and Mike Weber makes sense to use, as each recorded at least 200 hits and 150 blocked shots.

In a time period in which there is a website for just about anything, there are seemingly limitless fantasy hockey articles that will provide you with useful information and great advice. However, these articles are usually written based on standard scoring systems. Same goes with the player rating systems that are usually used, although you may be able to find stats customizable to your scoring system in a few different places. Ultimately, though, it is up to you to understand your scoring system, both inside and out, to maximize the potential of your fantasy roster.


Saturday, 14 December 2013

Lehtonen Busy on Thursday

Don't know if any of you noticed this on the CBS live scoring, but check out how many saves Kari Lehtonen made on Thursday night.


Too bad CBS corrected the error and Lehtonen ended up getting tagged with the loss. Lehtonen has been solid for fantasy teams this season with a 2.49 GAA and .919 SV% this season, but he has tailed off recently in allowing at least three goals in each of his last four games.