I finally found a bit of time to go onto the Yahoo site last night to set some pre-draft rankings. In my last post, I was looking strictly at players way down the list that could provide much higher payoffs than their rankings would project. This time, I'm going to focus on the early-round picks: both players that should be ranked higher or lower. After all, remember the year when Yahoo ranked Bobby Ryan #9? I mean, Ryan is a good player and all, but he has never done anything to justify that ranking. (In case you're wondering, Yahoo has the new Senator ranked at #41 this season, a ranking that I believe is fair.)
Raise them up
Claude Giroux, C/RW, PHI (16): If Giroux is able to return from his freak hand injury as early as Tuesday (still the preseason), shouldn't you bump him up a little? If he starts the season on time, the point-per-game scorer is easily worth a top 10 pick. (Philly.com)
Corey Perry, RW, ANA (23): Perry was a top-10 pick and 50-goal scorer not so long ago. Although I'm not saying he will reach those number again this season, he should be counted on for at least 30 goals and 100 penalty minutes again. That should at least move him up a little.
Erik Karlsson, D, OTT (32): If P.K. Subban is ranked #17, shouldn't Karlsson be ranked higher? I'm not necessarily saying Subban should be ranked lower. The last two Norris Trophy winners, who you can count on for near point-per-game numbers, should be ranked a little closer together. Like Giroux, an injury pushes Karlsson down the rankings. For the same reason, perhaps Kris Letang (35) could be ranked higher too.
Roberto Luongo, G, VAN (50): All you 7uongo fans will laugh at me, I'm sure. But Luongo's regular season numbers are always better than his playoff numbers. In addition, he won't be challenged for starts by anyone this season. I'd certainly rank him higher than Braden Holtby or Marc-Andre Fleury, which Yahoo has not done.
Logan Couture, C/LW, SJ (81): Couture is the future franchise player for the Sharks. Scoring 21 goals in 48 games is a notable accomplishment. Left wing is the thinnest of the forward positions, so he is valuable if he holds onto that eligibility.
Lower them down
Craig Anderson, G, OTT (21): I loved picking Anderson when he was ranked something like 140. On that note, picking him at that spot helped me win the Experts League last season. But I get the feeling that he will only disappoint if you draft him this high. Like he does every year, he will probably face a million shots, and you'll have to hope that only a few of them go in.
Sergei Bobrovsky, G, CBJ (24): Remember that it wasn't so long ago that it was wrong to go near any Columbus goalie in fantasy? I guess I'm not quite as big a fan of Bobrovsky as Jay Onrait. He will probably get drafted this high anyway, since the goalie run in most drafts starts fairly early.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, EDM (63): The latest news on the Nuge is the seven-year contract that he signed with the Oils. However, don't forget that he is expected to miss the first month of the season following offseason shoulder surgery.
Derek Stepan, C, NYR (72): I usually lower contract holdout players for the same reason that I lower injured players. Although Stepan was a near point-per-game scorer last season (44 points), Darren Dreger doesn't seem to think that the contract will be ready in time for the season opener.
Did I miss any players? Do you agree/disagree with my choices? Feel free to comment below.
Friday 20 September 2013
Friday 13 September 2013
Mining the Yahoo Rankings
Compared to previous years, I believe Yahoo has done a much better job this season with its rankings. I can remember entering some drafts with a list of players that I felt were severely undervalued, as injuries and unusually poor seasons had pushed players down too far. Even last year, I targeted Pavel Datsyuk and Marian Gaborik because I felt that the Yahoo rankers had not done them justice as proven NHL scorers. We can probably credit Yahoo's new association with Rotoworld in not just hockey, but also football, in its improvement in tracking the true values of players at each position. Do you agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments below.
That being said, there are a few players a little too low in Yahoo's rankings which could be players to target in the later rounds of your draft. After all, remember that it's not the early-round picks that win or lose fantasy seasons. (Hey! Look at me! I'm a genius! I knew to select Sidney Crosby first overall!) In one of my earlier blog entries, I mentioned Jarome Iginla (123) and Vincent Lecavalier (124) as players who had probably never experienced rankings this low and could probably be nudged a little higher. So I plan to start at 150 and work my way down. Remember, the further down the rankings the player, the greater the hidden gem that could benefit your team.
Cody Hodgson, C/RW, BUF (171): It pains me to say this as a Canucks fan, but Cody could be in line for a breakout season if the Sabres don't go into fire sale mode. Hodgson will probably center the Sabres' top line alongside sniper Thomas Vanek; that is, if the Sabres don't trade Vanek.
Jaromir Jagr, RW, NJ (193): I might be reaching with the over-40 future Hall of Famers (see Selanne below), but Jagr scored a very respectable 35 points in 45 games last season. He's sure to receive top-6 minutes in scoring-starved New Jersey this season.
Teemu Selanne, RW, ANA (204): If fantasy hockey rankings were equivalent to a player's popularity, Selanne's ranking would be off the charts. As it stands, Selanne has scored at least 25 goals in each of his last four full seasons (not counting last season). There's probably something left, considering where you'll get him.
Alex Burrows, LW/RW, VAN (242): Burrows was on and off the Sedin line last season, and he may start the season on Ryan Kesler's wing and not with the Sedins. Like Selanne, however, he had scored at least 25 goals in each of his last four full seasons (not counting last season). If new coach John Tortorella moves Burr back to the top line, his value will be much higher than it is now.
Shane Doan, LW/RW (244) and Radim Vrbata, RW, PHX (247): Are the Coyotes that hard up for scoring that their two top scorers from last season are ranked this low? Bringing in a playmaker like Mike Ribeiro could especially help a sniper like Vrbata, who recorded 28 points in an injury-shortened 34 games last season and scored 35 goals the year before.
Ray Emery, G, PHI (252): Somebody has to be the starter in the goalie graveyard that is Philly. A 1.94 GAA and .922 SV% in backup duty for the Blackhawks last season is difficult to overlook. Do you really have faith in Steve Mason?
Nathan McKinnon, C, COL (253): Don't expect him to light the world on fire this season. But if you're a keeper leaguer, now you know where to find him.
Ray Whitney, LW, DAL (271): Another member of the Father Time club, Whitney was practically a point-per-game scorer last season with 29 points in 32 games. The funny thing is that he continues to produce in spite of being written off year after year after year.
Filip Forsberg, C/RW, NSH (276): The Predators might have performed highway robbery in acquiring Forsberg from the Capitals at the deadline last season. You just might do the same if you make him one of your last few picks this season.
David Clarkson, RW, TOR (291): Leaf fans must be infuriated that their free agent frenzy prize is ranked this low. Even those without the Leaf-colored glasses should notice this too. In case you don't have a Leafs fan within your circle to remind you, Clarkson is a fantasy hockey power forward - a great source of goals and penalty minutes.
Bryan Bickell, LW, CHI (331): If this playoff hero is good enough to receive a four-year extension from the Stanley Cup champions, he should be good enough for a spot in mid-sized to deeper leagues. Remember that he scored nine goals and 17 points in 23 playoff games during the playoffs. The 6'4", 233 lb. Bickell has the tools to be a solid power forward in fantasy hockey.
Vinny Prospal, LW, CBJ (332): I have to laugh because one of my friends mentioned him in conversation awhile ago as a player who has been around nearly forever and has played for just about every team. What you also have is a consistent scorer who led the Blue Jackets in scoring this season (30 points in 48 games). If he's not drafted in your league, I'd be willing to bet that someone will add him off the waiver wire at some point.
Zack Kassian, RW, VAN (336): Guess what? Kassian is starting training camp on the Sedin line. Don't forget that Torts loves young players almost as much as he hates Twitter, so Kassassin could be there for awhile. Kassian had some success on that line last season before Alain Vigneault, who at times seemed like the Dusty Baker of the NHL for his aversion for playing youngsters (note what happened to the above-mentioned Hodgson), split them up for whatever reason.
Danny Briere, C/RW, PHI (337): Remember when Briere could score? It actually wasn't that long ago. He's totally hidden in this spot, considering he is back in his home province and not dealing with the pressures of trying to live up to a large contract.
Valeri Nishushkin, RW, DAL (342): As mentioned before, if this first-rounder makes the club, he could see some time on the Stars' top line alongside Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn. Keep an eye on the training camp reports.
Tim Thomas, G, ??? (349): Don't laugh. It was two short years ago that he led the Bruins to the Stanley Cup in one of the best seasons that a goalie has had in recent memory. Thomas appears ready to emerge from his apocalypse bunker and play somewhere this season, perhaps Florida (where at least you won't have to worry about him embarrassing his team and not showing up at the White House for a Stanley Cup visit). Until then, he's a decent stash and save.
I'll end it at 400, although I'll probably do some more looking later. But if you can find any other interesting names, be sure to let me know.
That being said, there are a few players a little too low in Yahoo's rankings which could be players to target in the later rounds of your draft. After all, remember that it's not the early-round picks that win or lose fantasy seasons. (Hey! Look at me! I'm a genius! I knew to select Sidney Crosby first overall!) In one of my earlier blog entries, I mentioned Jarome Iginla (123) and Vincent Lecavalier (124) as players who had probably never experienced rankings this low and could probably be nudged a little higher. So I plan to start at 150 and work my way down. Remember, the further down the rankings the player, the greater the hidden gem that could benefit your team.
Cody Hodgson, C/RW, BUF (171): It pains me to say this as a Canucks fan, but Cody could be in line for a breakout season if the Sabres don't go into fire sale mode. Hodgson will probably center the Sabres' top line alongside sniper Thomas Vanek; that is, if the Sabres don't trade Vanek.
Jaromir Jagr, RW, NJ (193): I might be reaching with the over-40 future Hall of Famers (see Selanne below), but Jagr scored a very respectable 35 points in 45 games last season. He's sure to receive top-6 minutes in scoring-starved New Jersey this season.
Teemu Selanne, RW, ANA (204): If fantasy hockey rankings were equivalent to a player's popularity, Selanne's ranking would be off the charts. As it stands, Selanne has scored at least 25 goals in each of his last four full seasons (not counting last season). There's probably something left, considering where you'll get him.
Alex Burrows, LW/RW, VAN (242): Burrows was on and off the Sedin line last season, and he may start the season on Ryan Kesler's wing and not with the Sedins. Like Selanne, however, he had scored at least 25 goals in each of his last four full seasons (not counting last season). If new coach John Tortorella moves Burr back to the top line, his value will be much higher than it is now.
Shane Doan, LW/RW (244) and Radim Vrbata, RW, PHX (247): Are the Coyotes that hard up for scoring that their two top scorers from last season are ranked this low? Bringing in a playmaker like Mike Ribeiro could especially help a sniper like Vrbata, who recorded 28 points in an injury-shortened 34 games last season and scored 35 goals the year before.
Ray Emery, G, PHI (252): Somebody has to be the starter in the goalie graveyard that is Philly. A 1.94 GAA and .922 SV% in backup duty for the Blackhawks last season is difficult to overlook. Do you really have faith in Steve Mason?
Nathan McKinnon, C, COL (253): Don't expect him to light the world on fire this season. But if you're a keeper leaguer, now you know where to find him.
Ray Whitney, LW, DAL (271): Another member of the Father Time club, Whitney was practically a point-per-game scorer last season with 29 points in 32 games. The funny thing is that he continues to produce in spite of being written off year after year after year.
Filip Forsberg, C/RW, NSH (276): The Predators might have performed highway robbery in acquiring Forsberg from the Capitals at the deadline last season. You just might do the same if you make him one of your last few picks this season.
David Clarkson, RW, TOR (291): Leaf fans must be infuriated that their free agent frenzy prize is ranked this low. Even those without the Leaf-colored glasses should notice this too. In case you don't have a Leafs fan within your circle to remind you, Clarkson is a fantasy hockey power forward - a great source of goals and penalty minutes.
Bryan Bickell, LW, CHI (331): If this playoff hero is good enough to receive a four-year extension from the Stanley Cup champions, he should be good enough for a spot in mid-sized to deeper leagues. Remember that he scored nine goals and 17 points in 23 playoff games during the playoffs. The 6'4", 233 lb. Bickell has the tools to be a solid power forward in fantasy hockey.
Vinny Prospal, LW, CBJ (332): I have to laugh because one of my friends mentioned him in conversation awhile ago as a player who has been around nearly forever and has played for just about every team. What you also have is a consistent scorer who led the Blue Jackets in scoring this season (30 points in 48 games). If he's not drafted in your league, I'd be willing to bet that someone will add him off the waiver wire at some point.
Zack Kassian, RW, VAN (336): Guess what? Kassian is starting training camp on the Sedin line. Don't forget that Torts loves young players almost as much as he hates Twitter, so Kassassin could be there for awhile. Kassian had some success on that line last season before Alain Vigneault, who at times seemed like the Dusty Baker of the NHL for his aversion for playing youngsters (note what happened to the above-mentioned Hodgson), split them up for whatever reason.
Danny Briere, C/RW, PHI (337): Remember when Briere could score? It actually wasn't that long ago. He's totally hidden in this spot, considering he is back in his home province and not dealing with the pressures of trying to live up to a large contract.
Valeri Nishushkin, RW, DAL (342): As mentioned before, if this first-rounder makes the club, he could see some time on the Stars' top line alongside Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn. Keep an eye on the training camp reports.
Tim Thomas, G, ??? (349): Don't laugh. It was two short years ago that he led the Bruins to the Stanley Cup in one of the best seasons that a goalie has had in recent memory. Thomas appears ready to emerge from his apocalypse bunker and play somewhere this season, perhaps Florida (where at least you won't have to worry about him embarrassing his team and not showing up at the White House for a Stanley Cup visit). Until then, he's a decent stash and save.
I'll end it at 400, although I'll probably do some more looking later. But if you can find any other interesting names, be sure to let me know.
Wednesday 11 September 2013
Choosing Between Two Knights
I play in a 12-team keeper league in which the offseason can be just as busy a time as the regular season. Players can be subject to salary arbitration and free agency bidding according to very specific guidelines that only someone with a law or finance degree could have created (hello, Jack!) In addition, the league contains an entry draft in which each team is allowed one first-round pick from the players chosen in the recent draft.
Based on my fourth-place finish last season, I received the ninth overall pick. I had several available players ranked, but the two players on the top of my list both happened to play on the same junior team last season: Bo Horvat and Max Domi of the London Knights.
Given that I have bled Canucks black/yellow/red/dark blue/blue/green for about the past 30 years, this might seem like the perfect time for me to choose Horvat, the player Canucks fans have entrusted to have at least as successful a career as Cory Schneider. However, my fantasy hockey policy has always been to never choose a player just because they play for the team I pull for. (For that, I once missed out on a four-goal game from Daniel Sedin back in 2004 because he was on my bench.) So I had to compare the numbers between Horvat and Domi, who happened to be chosen three spots after Horvat by the Phoenix Coyotes.
2012-13 regular season:
Horvat: 67 GP, 33 G, 28 A, 61 PTS, 29 PIM
Domi: 64 GP, 39 G, 48 A, 87 PTS, 71 PIM
The previous season's (2011-12) stats also show Domi to be the higher scorer at 49 points to 30 points. Based strictly on the numbers, it would seem as though Domi shows the greater fantasy upside, which is why I chose him instead of Horvat at that spot.
So why would the Canucks, with such an important pick and the only return for Schneider, choose Horvat? Until recently with Henrik Sedin and a healthy Ryan Kesler, the Canucks have traditionally been weak at the center position. Once he is NHL-ready, Horvat should provide the Canucks with at least adequate scoring along with an effective two-way presence and the ability to win faceoffs. Domi is a smaller playmaker who doesn't quite have the size (5'9", 185 lbs.) that scouts drool over on draft day. The penalty minute totals suggest that he may hold a little of the mean streak of his father (Tie Domi), but Max is a very different and considerably more naturally talented player than his dad.
By the way, Horvat was selected two picks after I had picked Domi. The player selected immediately after Domi? Another Canuck pick in Hunter Shinkaruk, who is an interesting choice given that he wasn't selected until #24 in the NHL draft. Shinkaruk has racked up some amazing numbers in the WHL (91 points in 2011-12, 86 points in 2012-13). Like Domi, the size factor perhaps knocks him down a little (5'10", 181 lbs.), but from all accounts Shinkaruk impressed on the Canucks' prospects team at the recent Young Stars tournament in Penticton, BC. Don't expect Shinkaruk to make the Canucks this season, but Horvat and Domi will probably be given a long look by their respective clubs.
Based on my fourth-place finish last season, I received the ninth overall pick. I had several available players ranked, but the two players on the top of my list both happened to play on the same junior team last season: Bo Horvat and Max Domi of the London Knights.
Given that I have bled Canucks black/yellow/red/dark blue/blue/green for about the past 30 years, this might seem like the perfect time for me to choose Horvat, the player Canucks fans have entrusted to have at least as successful a career as Cory Schneider. However, my fantasy hockey policy has always been to never choose a player just because they play for the team I pull for. (For that, I once missed out on a four-goal game from Daniel Sedin back in 2004 because he was on my bench.) So I had to compare the numbers between Horvat and Domi, who happened to be chosen three spots after Horvat by the Phoenix Coyotes.
2012-13 regular season:
Horvat: 67 GP, 33 G, 28 A, 61 PTS, 29 PIM
Domi: 64 GP, 39 G, 48 A, 87 PTS, 71 PIM
The previous season's (2011-12) stats also show Domi to be the higher scorer at 49 points to 30 points. Based strictly on the numbers, it would seem as though Domi shows the greater fantasy upside, which is why I chose him instead of Horvat at that spot.
So why would the Canucks, with such an important pick and the only return for Schneider, choose Horvat? Until recently with Henrik Sedin and a healthy Ryan Kesler, the Canucks have traditionally been weak at the center position. Once he is NHL-ready, Horvat should provide the Canucks with at least adequate scoring along with an effective two-way presence and the ability to win faceoffs. Domi is a smaller playmaker who doesn't quite have the size (5'9", 185 lbs.) that scouts drool over on draft day. The penalty minute totals suggest that he may hold a little of the mean streak of his father (Tie Domi), but Max is a very different and considerably more naturally talented player than his dad.
By the way, Horvat was selected two picks after I had picked Domi. The player selected immediately after Domi? Another Canuck pick in Hunter Shinkaruk, who is an interesting choice given that he wasn't selected until #24 in the NHL draft. Shinkaruk has racked up some amazing numbers in the WHL (91 points in 2011-12, 86 points in 2012-13). Like Domi, the size factor perhaps knocks him down a little (5'10", 181 lbs.), but from all accounts Shinkaruk impressed on the Canucks' prospects team at the recent Young Stars tournament in Penticton, BC. Don't expect Shinkaruk to make the Canucks this season, but Horvat and Domi will probably be given a long look by their respective clubs.
Sunday 1 September 2013
Bearing Down on the Fantasy Hockey Season
Well, I'm back, it's been awhile. I've been too busy with work and being a father and more work and more being a father. It's funny how I finally get caught up here on, of all weekends, Labour Day.
So what has happened since then? Not a whole lot in the hockey world, except that fantasy hockey leagues are officially opening up again. In only one short month, the puck will drop on the NHL season. I don't know if I'm as ready as I have been in previous seasons. My leaguemates will be thrilled to read that, no doubt. After all, I can remember spending much of July and August preparing the draft guide for fantasyhockey.com in hopes that it would be ready at the start of September.
I did say in my last posting that I would mention the Boston Bruins in my next posting. Since that time, I was able to stumble upon an article from SLAM! Sports about Milan Lucic reaching out to his new teammate Jarome Iginla during the recent Team Canada orientation camp. The article mentioned that Lucic and Iginla would likely be centered by David Krejci on the Bruins' top line, which got me thinking about what the Bruins' top six would likely look like.
Milan Lucic - David Krejci - Jarome Iginla
Brad Marchand - Patrice Bergeron - Loui Eriksson
Honestly, I can't see the proposed second line differing much from the top line in terms of icetime.
Given that time does not take it easy on aging power forwards, Iginla's production would have to be considered less than point-per-game, which we caught a glimpse of last season (33 points in 44 games). In other words, let him slide at least a round or two later than you've picked him in previous seasons, even if he is now on a better team and on that team's first line. You probably will anyway, given that Yahoo has Iggy ranked at a surprisingly low 123. I mean, c'mon, nudge him up just a little. But not to the top 50. (Interesting footnote: Vincent Lecavalier is ranked right next to Iggy at 124. Remember this dandy from the 2004 finals? Bob Cole called the game, and he likes the word "dandy," although I don't think he and Harry Neale thought that the two superstars fighting was a dandy idea.)
Lucic is an interesting case. A host on the local sports talk radio station here in Vancouver called Lucic "an elite player," something that I'd have to disagree with given his output last season. I know that a lot of players were messed up by the shortened season, but seven goals in 46 games, including a 15-game goalless drought, is what you'd expect from Dustin Penner, not an elite player. Having said that, Looch was a 60-point and 100-penalty minute player the previous two seasons, and you should probably draft him that way. (By the way, click on my friend Chris Wassel's interesting article on fantasy categories that should possibly go the way of the tie game.)
Since I mentioned how Tyler Seguin's fantasy value would be affected by the move to Dallas, I should probably also write about the player coming the other way. As listed above, Eriksson figures to play on a line with two-way player extraordinaire Patrice Bergeron and little rat extraordinaire Brad Marchand, a line that will probably pile up the plus/minus by combining air-tight defensive play with solid offensive production. (Hey, there's that article again about fantasy categories that might one day fly away like the Atlanta Thrashers.) Eriksson's numbers dipped a little with the shortened season (29 points in 48 games), but remember that he was a 25-goal, 70-point guy in each of the previous three seasons.
I'm sure you won't need to wait nearly as long for my next posting.
So what has happened since then? Not a whole lot in the hockey world, except that fantasy hockey leagues are officially opening up again. In only one short month, the puck will drop on the NHL season. I don't know if I'm as ready as I have been in previous seasons. My leaguemates will be thrilled to read that, no doubt. After all, I can remember spending much of July and August preparing the draft guide for fantasyhockey.com in hopes that it would be ready at the start of September.
I did say in my last posting that I would mention the Boston Bruins in my next posting. Since that time, I was able to stumble upon an article from SLAM! Sports about Milan Lucic reaching out to his new teammate Jarome Iginla during the recent Team Canada orientation camp. The article mentioned that Lucic and Iginla would likely be centered by David Krejci on the Bruins' top line, which got me thinking about what the Bruins' top six would likely look like.
Milan Lucic - David Krejci - Jarome Iginla
Brad Marchand - Patrice Bergeron - Loui Eriksson
Honestly, I can't see the proposed second line differing much from the top line in terms of icetime.
Given that time does not take it easy on aging power forwards, Iginla's production would have to be considered less than point-per-game, which we caught a glimpse of last season (33 points in 44 games). In other words, let him slide at least a round or two later than you've picked him in previous seasons, even if he is now on a better team and on that team's first line. You probably will anyway, given that Yahoo has Iggy ranked at a surprisingly low 123. I mean, c'mon, nudge him up just a little. But not to the top 50. (Interesting footnote: Vincent Lecavalier is ranked right next to Iggy at 124. Remember this dandy from the 2004 finals? Bob Cole called the game, and he likes the word "dandy," although I don't think he and Harry Neale thought that the two superstars fighting was a dandy idea.)
Lucic is an interesting case. A host on the local sports talk radio station here in Vancouver called Lucic "an elite player," something that I'd have to disagree with given his output last season. I know that a lot of players were messed up by the shortened season, but seven goals in 46 games, including a 15-game goalless drought, is what you'd expect from Dustin Penner, not an elite player. Having said that, Looch was a 60-point and 100-penalty minute player the previous two seasons, and you should probably draft him that way. (By the way, click on my friend Chris Wassel's interesting article on fantasy categories that should possibly go the way of the tie game.)
Since I mentioned how Tyler Seguin's fantasy value would be affected by the move to Dallas, I should probably also write about the player coming the other way. As listed above, Eriksson figures to play on a line with two-way player extraordinaire Patrice Bergeron and little rat extraordinaire Brad Marchand, a line that will probably pile up the plus/minus by combining air-tight defensive play with solid offensive production. (Hey, there's that article again about fantasy categories that might one day fly away like the Atlanta Thrashers.) Eriksson's numbers dipped a little with the shortened season (29 points in 48 games), but remember that he was a 25-goal, 70-point guy in each of the previous three seasons.
I'm sure you won't need to wait nearly as long for my next posting.
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