Roberto Luongo Staying Put?

Roberto Luongo in pre-game concentration

If you're reading this, you probably don't need a refresher on the Roberto Luongo situation. Expected to finally be traded this offseason, Canucks GM Mike Gillis threw a curveball out of desperation and instead traded Cory Schneider to New Jersey. And you thought that would be the end of the goaltending problems in Van City, right? Not so fast, according to Ren Lavoie of RDS.

This being a fantasy hockey blog, I'll attempt to discuss the fantasy implications of Luongo staying in Vancouver, but those implications also hinge on the probability that he remains a Canuck for the coming season.

Let's start with the probability. Unless the Canucks can attempt a creative maneuver with another club, Luongo and his contract have already been deemed untradeable. In other words, if Lu wants his money, he'll need to report to the Canucks in September. There's always the chance that he holds out based on the principle that his hard feelings toward the club are irreparable, though, which would within an offseason transform the Canucks from a team with two starting goalies to a team with no starting goalie. It would be entertaining just to see Gillis put his usual spin on that one.

Now let's assume that he reports on time and without incident. Based on his track record, Luongo has the potential to be a top-10 - perhaps even a top-5 - fantasy goalie option. Lu would be primed to start 60+ games as he did earlier in his Canucks career, back when his only competition was the likes of Dany Sabourin, Curtis Sanford, Jason LaBarbera, and Andrew Raycroft. This coming season, his only competition would come from unproven Swedes Eddie Lack and Joacim Eriksson, as Gillis stated on the TEAM 1040 today that he doesn't plan to bring in an experienced backup.  Add to this the shot-blocking, defense-first philosophy of new coach John Tortorella, and Lu could be in for a very good season. If the Canucks are anything close to the perennial Northwest Division champions they have been the past few seasons, Luongo could very well return to form as one of fantasy hockey's top goaltending options.

But what about his state of mind? According to the Vancouver Province, Canucks owner and Luongo-whisperer-in-training Francesco Aquilini has jetted to Florida recently to mend fences with Luongo, with Gillis soon to follow. Assuming Luongo returns, what will his motivation be to play for a team that told the world for over a year that they were going to trade him? In addition, how receptive will Luongo be to playing for the temperamental Tortorella? Lu joked about wanting to stay just for the press conferences (@strombone1), but that was before the Schneider deal changed the context of everything. For what it's worth, Torts has said all the right things so far (NHL.com). We all no doubt remember the playoff meltdowns against Boston and Chicago and perhaps the regular-season finale against Edmonton - would those games be weighing in on his mind? On a night when the Canucks' defense is out to lunch, will Lu throw his arms in the air and blemish his fantasy owners with eight goals allowed in a game, past blowouts weighing heavily on his mind?

One other minor issue is the Olympics. If you are a Canadian hockey fan, which goalie would you want starting in the Olympics? Don't forget that Luongo was Canada's gold-medal winning goalie in 2010, and Canada doesn't seem to have a goalie that is a clear preference right now. Marc-Andre Fleury? Carey Price? Cam Ward? Maybe even Corey Crawford or Martin Brodeur? Lu's participation in the Olympics could be both good and bad for his fantasy value. Of course, his confidence will be at an all-time high if he is once again selected as the team's starting goalie. But an extra 2 - 3 weeks of season, the long flight to and from Russia, and the emotional letdown of having to play regular season games following pressure-packed Olympic games could mean that his play falls off during the final few weeks of the regular season - the all-important fantasy playoffs.

At least you won't have to make a decision on this today. But we definitely haven't heard the last of this story either. And don't worry, Devils' fans, my next blog post will be about how the Schneider deal affects the Devils' goaltending situation.