The recent blockbuster trade that sent Tyler Seguin to the Dallas Stars should be viewed as somewhat of a surprise, considering that the former second overall pick had just completed only his third NHL season with the Boston Bruins. That being said, Seguin's alleged hard-partying ways and social media irresponsibility didn't sit well with the Bruins' disciplined off-ice system. Trading Seguin makes sense to a degree for the contending Bruins, who haven't been forced to rush Seguin to the NHL the same way the rebuilding Oilers have with their recent first overall picks. With that in mind, it's a wonder Seguin was able to score 67 points (29g-38a) in his sophomore season while averaging under 17 minutes of icetime per game.
Perhaps a slight decline in production played a role in Seguin's departure, as he would have averaged only 55 points if the NHL played a full season last season, plus an underwhelming 8 points in 22 playoff games. However, with Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci firmly entrenched as the Bruins' top two centers, Seguin's only hope of top-6 minutes would rest on a move to the right side, away from his natural center position. The good news about the move to Dallas is that Seguin is expected to move back to center, with natural winger Jamie Benn moving away from the center position. Expect new Stars' coach Lindy Ruff to match Seguin and Benn together on the Stars' top line, possibly alongside this year's first-round pick Valeri Nichushkin (provided he doesn't summon his inner Ilya Kovalchuk by staying in Russia).
Considering that Seguin never averaged more than 17 minutes of icetime per game in his three seasons with Boston, he seems ready for a huge boost in icetime with his new team. Increased minutes mean the potential for more points plus more power-play points (24 PPP over his three seasons in Boston), but his double-digit plus/minus (+57 over his last two seasons) seems unlikely for a Stars team that will probably be a bubble playoff team yet again. A total of 60 points over a full season seems like a strong bet, with the upside for a lot more if he and Benn find the right chemistry. Seguin still has significant keeper value, although for purely selfish reasons I'll be praying that Ruff experiments with him enough at the thinner RW position in order to maintain eligibility at that position (I already have an abundance of centers on my keeper team).
Would a rebound season in Dallas mean that the Bruins gave up too soon? If so, expect the Joe Thornton references to resurface, not to mention rumblings from Leafland that they in fact won the Phil Kessel trade. But can a team be rewarded by being patient with a talented yet immature player? Look no further than the results Patrick Kane and P.K. Subban last season. This trade could come back to haunt the Bruins if they fail to hoist a Stanley Cup sometime over the next few seasons.
Next, I'll look at the Seguin trade from a Boston perspective and also attempt to describe what the addition of Jarome Iginla could mean for the Bruins.
Monday 15 July 2013
Thursday 11 July 2013
Kovy Shocker Short
Hey, I know I said I would write about Tyler Seguin in my next entry, and I will get to him shortly... later this summer (underpromise, overdeliver). But this Ilya Kovalchuk "retirement" announcement came out of nowhere, so I have to say something about it. Should it have really been that much of a surprise, given the rumblings prior to the shortened season that he wanted to stay in Russia? Like many of the hockey experts have said, expect him to sign in Russia in a matter of days for more rubles than the entire economy of Siberia (a warm hello to my readers in Russia - Google tells me I have a few).
If Kovalchuk was a pillar of your fantasy keeper team, I feel your pain. At least he'll likely be the first overall pick in KHL drafts, if you happen to participate in one of those leagues. On the bright side, he could be back in 2 or 3 years (think Jaromir Jagr), which might make him worth keeping in leagues that have plenty of reserve slots. His departure could also make some keeper decisions easier - there's always that. But who am I kidding - this sucks, especially if you used significant dollars or a high pick in your fantasy league.
As for my friends who are Devils fans, at least you have two solid starting goalies (see my previous entry). You can expect newly signed Michael Ryder and Ryane Clowe to see a ton of minutes; in fact, we shouldn't have to wait nearly as long for Clowe to score his first goal of the season. In addition, the Devils might pursue some additional scoring with all the money they save by not paying Kovalchuk, although whatever options are left will not nearly replace Kovalchuk. A great deal of the scoring load will now fall on the now 37-year-old Patrik Elias, but at least he's signed for another three years for a number that is way more cap-friendly.
Lastly, it has to sting Devils fans to lose Zach Parise, David Clarkson, and now Kovalchuk from the team that made the Stanley Cup Final just one short year ago.
If Kovalchuk was a pillar of your fantasy keeper team, I feel your pain. At least he'll likely be the first overall pick in KHL drafts, if you happen to participate in one of those leagues. On the bright side, he could be back in 2 or 3 years (think Jaromir Jagr), which might make him worth keeping in leagues that have plenty of reserve slots. His departure could also make some keeper decisions easier - there's always that. But who am I kidding - this sucks, especially if you used significant dollars or a high pick in your fantasy league.
As for my friends who are Devils fans, at least you have two solid starting goalies (see my previous entry). You can expect newly signed Michael Ryder and Ryane Clowe to see a ton of minutes; in fact, we shouldn't have to wait nearly as long for Clowe to score his first goal of the season. In addition, the Devils might pursue some additional scoring with all the money they save by not paying Kovalchuk, although whatever options are left will not nearly replace Kovalchuk. A great deal of the scoring load will now fall on the now 37-year-old Patrik Elias, but at least he's signed for another three years for a number that is way more cap-friendly.
Lastly, it has to sting Devils fans to lose Zach Parise, David Clarkson, and now Kovalchuk from the team that made the Stanley Cup Final just one short year ago.
Sunday 7 July 2013
A Devil of a Goaltending Situation
Even the most biased of Vancouver Canucks supporters will tell you that the New Jersey Devils clearly won the draft-day deal that saw Cory Schneider somewhat unexpectedly sent to the Devils for the ninth overall pick that the Canucks used to select Bo Horvat. After all, no one knows what kind of NHLer Horvat will be, while Schneider has established himself as a number one goalie during the abbreviated season that just ended. But looking immediately ahead, the fact that Schneider has been a starting goalie doesn't matter as much as whether he will be the starting goalie for the Devils this season.
According to Devils' GM Lou Lamoriello, Martin Brodeur is "still a number one goalie" with the "question of how much he can play" (CBS Sports). Although this statement doesn't mean that Brodeur will still be the number one goalie, it didn't exactly mean that the Devils will attempt to ease their 19-year starting goalie into retirement next season. Brodeur has accomplished everything that an NHL goalie can accomplish over his career, yet he appears intent on continuing his career as long as he can. The dropoff has already begun, as Brodeur recorded just a .901 SV% while the Devils unexpectedly missed the playoffs. However, don't expect Lamoriello to alienate the future Hall of Famer by implying that he is the backup, a mistake that Canucks management made last season with Roberto Luongo.
What this all means is that with the trade, Schneider's fantasy value could decline, at least short-term. Given the Devils' track record of stifling defense, this move should turn out very for Schneider following Brodeur's departure if the Devils stick to what they've always been known for. (Note that I use the word "departure" instead of "retirement", since Brodeur may not necessarily retire a Devil. Case in point: Daniel Alfredsson. Just thought I'd get that in.) Just how many starts each will receive remains to be seen, but we do know that Brodeur's days of 70 starts per season are done. We also know that the two goalies should split back-to-back games, since Brodeur and Johan Hedberg have done so the past few seasons. If you then split the difference, then this situation has many of the characteristics of a timeshare arrangement.
Unless further information develops over the summer and in training camp, both goalies will likely be outside of the top 10 to target on draft day. Schneider could be one to consider after the first run of goalies has come and gone, while Brodeur is probably only a mid-rounder in average-sized leagues at this point in his career. With the recent trade, Schneider's keeper value probably shouldn't change, but hopefully he won't have already celebrated his 30th birthday before he settles in as a full-time NHL goalie.
Just to provide you with a reason to check back, my next blog will be on another player that my friends and I have discussed at length on Twitter recently: Tyler Seguin.
According to Devils' GM Lou Lamoriello, Martin Brodeur is "still a number one goalie" with the "question of how much he can play" (CBS Sports). Although this statement doesn't mean that Brodeur will still be the number one goalie, it didn't exactly mean that the Devils will attempt to ease their 19-year starting goalie into retirement next season. Brodeur has accomplished everything that an NHL goalie can accomplish over his career, yet he appears intent on continuing his career as long as he can. The dropoff has already begun, as Brodeur recorded just a .901 SV% while the Devils unexpectedly missed the playoffs. However, don't expect Lamoriello to alienate the future Hall of Famer by implying that he is the backup, a mistake that Canucks management made last season with Roberto Luongo.
What this all means is that with the trade, Schneider's fantasy value could decline, at least short-term. Given the Devils' track record of stifling defense, this move should turn out very for Schneider following Brodeur's departure if the Devils stick to what they've always been known for. (Note that I use the word "departure" instead of "retirement", since Brodeur may not necessarily retire a Devil. Case in point: Daniel Alfredsson. Just thought I'd get that in.) Just how many starts each will receive remains to be seen, but we do know that Brodeur's days of 70 starts per season are done. We also know that the two goalies should split back-to-back games, since Brodeur and Johan Hedberg have done so the past few seasons. If you then split the difference, then this situation has many of the characteristics of a timeshare arrangement.
Unless further information develops over the summer and in training camp, both goalies will likely be outside of the top 10 to target on draft day. Schneider could be one to consider after the first run of goalies has come and gone, while Brodeur is probably only a mid-rounder in average-sized leagues at this point in his career. With the recent trade, Schneider's keeper value probably shouldn't change, but hopefully he won't have already celebrated his 30th birthday before he settles in as a full-time NHL goalie.
Just to provide you with a reason to check back, my next blog will be on another player that my friends and I have discussed at length on Twitter recently: Tyler Seguin.
Friday 5 July 2013
Roberto Luongo Staying Put?
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| Roberto Luongo in pre-game concentration |
This being a fantasy hockey blog, I'll attempt to discuss the fantasy implications of Luongo staying in Vancouver, but those implications also hinge on the probability that he remains a Canuck for the coming season.
Let's start with the probability. Unless the Canucks can attempt a creative maneuver with another club, Luongo and his contract have already been deemed untradeable. In other words, if Lu wants his money, he'll need to report to the Canucks in September. There's always the chance that he holds out based on the principle that his hard feelings toward the club are irreparable, though, which would within an offseason transform the Canucks from a team with two starting goalies to a team with no starting goalie. It would be entertaining just to see Gillis put his usual spin on that one.
Now let's assume that he reports on time and without incident. Based on his track record, Luongo has the potential to be a top-10 - perhaps even a top-5 - fantasy goalie option. Lu would be primed to start 60+ games as he did earlier in his Canucks career, back when his only competition was the likes of Dany Sabourin, Curtis Sanford, Jason LaBarbera, and Andrew Raycroft. This coming season, his only competition would come from unproven Swedes Eddie Lack and Joacim Eriksson, as Gillis stated on the TEAM 1040 today that he doesn't plan to bring in an experienced backup. Add to this the shot-blocking, defense-first philosophy of new coach John Tortorella, and Lu could be in for a very good season. If the Canucks are anything close to the perennial Northwest Division champions they have been the past few seasons, Luongo could very well return to form as one of fantasy hockey's top goaltending options.
But what about his state of mind? According to the Vancouver Province, Canucks owner and Luongo-whisperer-in-training Francesco Aquilini has jetted to Florida recently to mend fences with Luongo, with Gillis soon to follow. Assuming Luongo returns, what will his motivation be to play for a team that told the world for over a year that they were going to trade him? In addition, how receptive will Luongo be to playing for the temperamental Tortorella? Lu joked about wanting to stay just for the press conferences (@strombone1), but that was before the Schneider deal changed the context of everything. For what it's worth, Torts has said all the right things so far (NHL.com). We all no doubt remember the playoff meltdowns against Boston and Chicago and perhaps the regular-season finale against Edmonton - would those games be weighing in on his mind? On a night when the Canucks' defense is out to lunch, will Lu throw his arms in the air and blemish his fantasy owners with eight goals allowed in a game, past blowouts weighing heavily on his mind?
One other minor issue is the Olympics. If you are a Canadian hockey fan, which goalie would you want starting in the Olympics? Don't forget that Luongo was Canada's gold-medal winning goalie in 2010, and Canada doesn't seem to have a goalie that is a clear preference right now. Marc-Andre Fleury? Carey Price? Cam Ward? Maybe even Corey Crawford or Martin Brodeur? Lu's participation in the Olympics could be both good and bad for his fantasy value. Of course, his confidence will be at an all-time high if he is once again selected as the team's starting goalie. But an extra 2 - 3 weeks of season, the long flight to and from Russia, and the emotional letdown of having to play regular season games following pressure-packed Olympic games could mean that his play falls off during the final few weeks of the regular season - the all-important fantasy playoffs.
At least you won't have to make a decision on this today. But we definitely haven't heard the last of this story either. And don't worry, Devils' fans, my next blog post will be about how the Schneider deal affects the Devils' goaltending situation.
Wednesday 3 July 2013
Welcome
It's the middle of summer, about 25 degrees Celsius outside (close to 80 for my American friends), and I'm starting a fantasy hockey blog. But I know what you're saying: it's like the season is still going, with the draft just completed and free agent frenzy just around the corner. That's why the timing of this blog actually makes perfect sense.
Why a new fantasy hockey blog? Well, this blog might not just be about fantasy hockey at times, but at the very least I can promise you that it will be about fantasy hockey. But a blog like this provides me with the flexibility to make things interesting and more personal on a number of levels.
You can follow me on Twitter (@Ian_Gooding), where I'll provide links to my articles as they are posted. I'll try to provide something on here as often as possible, although with a job and two young sons, I can't promise how often that will be.
If you've stumbled upon this and don't know who I am, I was the former content manager of fantasyhockey.com and more recently have written for Kukla's Korner. I also play in numerous fantasy hockey leagues, and surprisingly only won the one aptly known as the Experts League. I guess that means I usually sink to the level of intelligence of those around me. Just kidding, I play against solid competition in every one of my leagues.
Anyway, welcome to what I hope will be the first of many interesting posts that I hope you will enjoy. For those of you who know me, I will no doubt be providing fantasy analysis of some offseason transactions, including one involving a certain goalie being surprisingly moved from the team I have followed as a long-suffering fan for over 30 years.
- Ian
Why a new fantasy hockey blog? Well, this blog might not just be about fantasy hockey at times, but at the very least I can promise you that it will be about fantasy hockey. But a blog like this provides me with the flexibility to make things interesting and more personal on a number of levels.
You can follow me on Twitter (@Ian_Gooding), where I'll provide links to my articles as they are posted. I'll try to provide something on here as often as possible, although with a job and two young sons, I can't promise how often that will be.
If you've stumbled upon this and don't know who I am, I was the former content manager of fantasyhockey.com and more recently have written for Kukla's Korner. I also play in numerous fantasy hockey leagues, and surprisingly only won the one aptly known as the Experts League. I guess that means I usually sink to the level of intelligence of those around me. Just kidding, I play against solid competition in every one of my leagues.
Anyway, welcome to what I hope will be the first of many interesting posts that I hope you will enjoy. For those of you who know me, I will no doubt be providing fantasy analysis of some offseason transactions, including one involving a certain goalie being surprisingly moved from the team I have followed as a long-suffering fan for over 30 years.
- Ian
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