We continue along in our study of the Yahoo draft rankings,
only this time focusing on players who may have been a little overvalued by the
rankers. Keep in mind that these are not players that I would be avoiding
entirely, but these are simply players who I would not draft at their present pre-draft
ranking. If others in my league were to agree and these players were to fall a
few rounds, however, I would not hesitate to add one of these players to my
team.
In the end, try not to be fixated on adding certain players
to your team. Any draft is fluid and can change suddenly. After all, how many
times has the person picking before you picked the player you were about to
add? An important key to a strong team is to ensure value with every player you
draft.
James Neal, LW/RW,
NSH (Yahoo rank: 35)
Of all the players who changed teams in the offseason, is
there any one player whose fantasy value decreased more than Neal’s? Sure,
Peter Laviolette plays more of an up-tempo style than Barry Trotz does. But
Neal goes from having Evgeni Malkin center him to what, Derek Roy? Mike
Ribeiro? Olli Jokinen? Mike Fisher, once he returns from injury? Neal’s value
isn’t as necessarily tied to any one player as former teammate Chris Kunitz is
to Crosby, but he is the only legitimate first liner on a Nashville team that
has never been strong in the scoring department. Expect decent numbers, but
nowhere near his first team All-Star level from two years ago (40 goals, 41
assists).
Rick Nash, LW/RW, NYR
(Yahoo rank: 51)
Aside from 26 goals and 258 shots on goal last season, Nash
didn’t provide a whole lot for fantasy owners. In fact, this has mirrored
Nash’s production throughout his career, where the goals outnumber the assists.
You will need to find your assists elsewhere if you draft Nash, but I have a
problem with any skater who recorded just 13 assists in the previous season (in
65 games, mind you) being ranked in the top 50. Just ask anyone who owned Nash
last season if they would draft him in that spot again. And like Neal, Nash
lacks an elite center to pass him the puck, with Derek Stepan being the closest
that they have to one.
Patrice Bergeron, C,
BOS (Yahoo rank: 54)
I had a friendly debate with fantasy hockey writer Darren on
this one, as he suggested a best-case scenario of 75 points, 240 shots, and a
+25 for Bergeron. Don’t get me wrong: Bergeron is an outstanding two-way player
who has been key to the success of both the Boston Bruins and Team Canada. His
plus/minus and shots on goal totals should once again be terrific. But I’ve
always thought that his responsibilities as a defensive shutdown faceoff
specialist limit his offensive ceiling. In other words, I’m more sold on him as
a real-life option than a fantasy option.
Ryan Kesler, C, ANA
(Yahoo rank: 68)
If you happen to believe that the Canucks got fleeced on the
Kesler trade, consider the following:
Ryan Kesler, 2013-14: 77 GP, 25 G, 18 A, 43 Pts, -15
Nick Bonino, 2013-14: 77 GP, 22 G, 27 A, 49 Pts, +14
For what it’s worth, Bonino’s Yahoo rank is 184. Kesler
believes he has a better chance of winning the Stanley Cup in Anaheim than in
Vancouver, which is probably true. However, the super confident Kesler is only
fooling himself (and so are you) if he believes he is reaching the 70-point
mark once again. Every injury adds further wear and tear to his body,
potentially increasing his number of games missed. The Canucks were wise to quickly
sell this depreciating asset who didn’t want to be part of a semi-rebuild. You’d
be wise to steer clear of Kesler at his normal draft position.
Brian Elliott, G, STL
(Yahoo rank: 69)
You could argue that there isn’t as much risk taking Elliott
in this spot as there is in picking a goalie in the early-round “goalie run”
that seems to occur at every draft. However, I believe that the Blues did not
seriously attempt to resign Ryan Miller because Jake Allen is officially ready
for NHL duty. Allen was the AHL’s goaltender of the year last season with a
2.03 GAA and .928 SV%, which suggests that the Blues will give him a long look
this season. Elliott is simply keeping the seat warm for Allen, who I believe
will be the goalie the Blues ride in their playoff run this season.
Ryan McDonagh, D, NYR
(Yahoo rank: 90)
Like Bergeron, McDonagh’s game translates much better at a
real level than at a fantasy level. Quite possibly the future captain of the
Rangers, McDonagh reached a career-high 43 points last season. His shots on
goal total isn’t bad for a defenseman, and he’ll probably receive more minutes
than any other Rangers defenseman. However, there simply isn’t enough there to
use a top-100 pick. Wait until later to add him if he’s still around.
Matt Niskanen, D, WAS
(Yahoo rank: 94)
Niskanen was able to parlay a career-best 46 point, +33 stat
line to a hefty free agent contract in Washington. So what often happens to
players with career-high totals who cash in afterward? A first-year letdown,
that’s what. I owned Niskanen in a deep league for the two years prior, and he
was barely able to keep his spot in my team’s starting lineup. To properly
assess a player, look beyond the previous season. Maybe he’s for real; maybe he
isn’t. But overall, this ranking is a little inflated.
