Preseason Goalie Rankings

As I’ve mentioned before, it’s important to be fluid and flexible in your live draft strategy. However, it is also important to target the right type of player at the right level, ensuring the best possible value at your pick. That is why a way to build your draft cheatsheet is to group players with similar levels of production in “tiers”, starting with goalies.

These players are grouped according to preseason Yahoo rankings, so I am not providing a critique of the Yahoo rankings as I had in earlier articles. (You can check out my previous articles on players ranked too high and players ranked too low.) If, for example, you believe that Ben Bishop is a top-tiered fantasy goalie, you could move him up to that category in your own ranking system.

The idea here is the strength of the pick. If your first pick at the goalie position is that of an elite goalie (G1+), you may wish to concentrate on other positions for your next few picks until you find a solid G2 or even a G1 at the right price. 

These groupings assume 12-team Yahoo leagues with standard scoring settings. If your league settings differ, you’ll want to adjust your tiers accordingly.

 

Some comments about my groupings:

G1+

This ranking is reserved for the elite goalies, of which there are only three this season. You will likely need a first-round pick for one of these three goalies (Rask, Lundqvist, Quick), but these goalies have all produced top-level stats over multiple seasons. You can expect strong numbers in all categories from these goalies. Expect at least 35 wins and 5 shutouts, a goals-against average just a hair above 2.00, and a save percentage of .920 from each of these goalies.

G1

Any of these names should suffice as your first goalie, and you’ll start to see these names fall off the draft board in the goalie run that usually begins in the second round. A goalie in this group can be expected to reach a high win total that comes from being the clear-cut number one goalie for a playoff bound team, of which there are numerous examples listed. Also, a goalie in this group may have strong ratios even if the team they play for is a bubble playoff team at best, as is the case with Cory Schneider and Pekka Rinne. These goalies should earn at least 30 wins each with a goals-against average of no more than 2.50.

G2+

Goalies in this group are also starting goalies for their team. However, the teams in this group as a whole aren’t as strong, which will lead to lower win totals. The ratios also shouldn’t be expected to be strong, although some of these goalies could move up to G1 level with a strong season. Roberto Luongo, a G1 during his time with the Canucks, is at this level strictly because of the team he now plays for. Expect these goalies to reach at least 25 wins with a goals-against average of no more than 2.75.

G2

In this group, we start to see more potential timeshare goalies. Teams such as Minnesota, Anaheim, and Ottawa possess unsettled goalie situations right now, but these teams could still all be playoff teams. The key is to either pick the right goalie, or to pick the “handcuff” option, a technique often used in other fantasy sports where waiver-wire options are limited, such as the closer or the running back, where the other player sharing the position is also added. Win totals will be harder to predict for this group of goalies, but their goals-against averages should be no more than 3.00. 

G3

Anything below this level is a goalie that you would be taking a flier on in the late rounds. You’ll see some names that have fallen from years past (Craig Anderson, Cam Ward), the starters of teams expected to finish last (Jhonas Enroth, Ben Scrivens), and even some sleepers (Jake Allen, Darcy Kuemper). If you don’t set your goalie rankings and miss your fantasy draft, you could end up with more than one of these goalies. The good news is that there seems to be at least one goalie per season in this tier that moves up to a G1 by the end of the season. However, picking a goalie from this pile is more lottery ticket than sure thing. Any other goalies that do not appear on the above colored list will fall into this category, such as Canucks’ short-term starter Eddie Lack or the unsigned Martin Brodeur or Ilya Bryzgalov. Many of these goalies are in danger of reaching goals-against averages of above 3.00 and save percentages of less than .900 – not exactly numbers that will help your fantasy team.

Sleepers - Forwards

Which players are on the verge of a breakout season? Which player will be the next big thing? Astute fantasy owners should always be on the lookout for future talent, which we are here to help you with.

Although none of the players identified were able to crack the preseason top 50 rankings, some of these players were able to demonstrate flashes of brilliance last season, with some benefitting from a change in situation. These are the kind of players that, if drafted in the mid to late rounds, could make a difference for your fantasy team, particularly if they are ready to break out and are in the top 50 by this time next season. 

We will start with forwards in this article. Defensemen and goalies will be featured in the next fantasy article. 

Patric Hornqvist, RW, PIT

Just as James Neal’s fantasy value plummeted with a move to Nashville, Hornqvist’s value skyrocketed with a move the other way. We saw what a move to Pittsburgh accomplished for the careers of Chris Kunitz and Pascal Dupuis, so Hornqvist’s upside in Pittsburgh has the potential to be massive. Hornqvist scored a career-high 53 points last season with Nashville’s no-name centers, so imagine what he could achieve with either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin as his center.  

Jaden Schwartz, LW, STL

I find it difficult to believe that a young former first-round pick who scored 25 goals and 31 assists with a +28 in his first full season is ranked around 150 by Yahoo. Staying in the top 6 might not be a sure thing, given the Blues’ depth at the forward position. However, Schwartz is not only a sleeper, but he is also a player that has been ranked too low by Yahoo. Right now the only downside to Schwartz is the fact that he has not signed a contract for this season. 

Evgeny Kuznetsov, C/LW, WAS

If you were able to save your waiver-wire priority into late last season, Kuznetsov was the reward for your patience. His numbers in his short stint were modest (9 points in 17 games), but the former first-round pick could be lucky enough to slot in beside Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom. The former World Junior Championship MVP certainly has the talent to keep up, although the offensive-minded Russian will need to click with defensive-minded coach Barry Trotz. 

Valeri Nichushkin, RW, DAL

The Russian with the difficult-to-spell name is many a hockey fan’s favorite young player. He had a decent first season (34 points), partially spent alongside Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn. Rumor has it that newly acquired Ales Hemsky will skate alongside Seguin and Benn on the first line, but Nichushkin should be just fine on the second line with another new acquisition in Jason Spezza. Given Hemsky’s injury history, it might not be long before Nik is back on the first line.  

Tomas Hertl, LW, SJ

I currently have the “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” theme song in my head, thanks to my five-year-old son. Coincidence? That doesn’t matter, but Hertl earned himself one of the league’s coolest nicknames last season thanks to an unexpected four-goal performance during the first week of the season. Unfortunately, his rookie season was cut short due to injury, but 25 points in 37 games have us wondering what’s in store. As the Sharks (try to) swim toward a youth movement, expect the young Czech to continue to go Ninja Turtle on NHL goalies.

Gustav Nyqvist, RW, DET

The Red Wings have made the playoffs for 20 consecutive years and counting, thanks to a scouting system that is able to find players well beyond the first round. Former fourth-round pick Nyqvist became a must-own in every league during the second half of last season, as 23 of his 28 goals were scored after January 20. He will be expected to shoulder a greater amount of the offensive load this season for the Wings, who will be in tough to keep their playoff streak alive. Nyqvist can be found just outside the top 100 in the Yahoo pre-draft rankings.

Jonathan Drouin, LW, TB

At one time Nathan MacKinnon’s sidekick on the Halifax Mooseheads of the QMJHL, Drouin will attempt to carve out a name of his own this season. Drouin has absolutely nothing left to prove in junior, racking up an unreal 108 points in just 46 regular-season games last season. It seems inconceivable that he would be anywhere except Tampa Bay this season, given that he would be the last of the top six of last year’s draft to see any regular-season action. Drouin is even a strong bet to make it back-to-back for former Mooseheads winning the Calder Trophy.

Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, STL

With two players on the forward sleeper list, the Blues appear to be in good hands both in the present and the future. Former first-round pick and World Junior star Tarasenko reached the 20-goal and 40-point mark in his sophomore season last season to go with a +20. Icetime may continue to be a struggle, as he only averaged 15 minutes per game last season. But like Kuznetsov, he has both the skills and pedigree to be a breakout candidate.

Mark Scheifele, C, WPG

The Winnipeg Jets’ first-ever draft pick (after the move to Winnipeg), Scheifele moved himself into the fantasy conversation last season with 23 points over his last 31 games before an MCL sprain ended his season in March. He is a center in mid to deep leagues that could fill out your roster, particularly if he lines up with the underrated Blake Wheeler and Evander Kane, should the latter remain in Winnipeg.

Are there any forward sleepers that we missed? Let us know in the comments below.