Preseason Goalie Rankings

As I’ve mentioned before, it’s important to be fluid and flexible in your live draft strategy. However, it is also important to target the right type of player at the right level, ensuring the best possible value at your pick. That is why a way to build your draft cheatsheet is to group players with similar levels of production in “tiers”, starting with goalies.

These players are grouped according to preseason Yahoo rankings, so I am not providing a critique of the Yahoo rankings as I had in earlier articles. (You can check out my previous articles on players ranked too high and players ranked too low.) If, for example, you believe that Ben Bishop is a top-tiered fantasy goalie, you could move him up to that category in your own ranking system.

The idea here is the strength of the pick. If your first pick at the goalie position is that of an elite goalie (G1+), you may wish to concentrate on other positions for your next few picks until you find a solid G2 or even a G1 at the right price. 

These groupings assume 12-team Yahoo leagues with standard scoring settings. If your league settings differ, you’ll want to adjust your tiers accordingly.

 

Some comments about my groupings:

G1+

This ranking is reserved for the elite goalies, of which there are only three this season. You will likely need a first-round pick for one of these three goalies (Rask, Lundqvist, Quick), but these goalies have all produced top-level stats over multiple seasons. You can expect strong numbers in all categories from these goalies. Expect at least 35 wins and 5 shutouts, a goals-against average just a hair above 2.00, and a save percentage of .920 from each of these goalies.

G1

Any of these names should suffice as your first goalie, and you’ll start to see these names fall off the draft board in the goalie run that usually begins in the second round. A goalie in this group can be expected to reach a high win total that comes from being the clear-cut number one goalie for a playoff bound team, of which there are numerous examples listed. Also, a goalie in this group may have strong ratios even if the team they play for is a bubble playoff team at best, as is the case with Cory Schneider and Pekka Rinne. These goalies should earn at least 30 wins each with a goals-against average of no more than 2.50.

G2+

Goalies in this group are also starting goalies for their team. However, the teams in this group as a whole aren’t as strong, which will lead to lower win totals. The ratios also shouldn’t be expected to be strong, although some of these goalies could move up to G1 level with a strong season. Roberto Luongo, a G1 during his time with the Canucks, is at this level strictly because of the team he now plays for. Expect these goalies to reach at least 25 wins with a goals-against average of no more than 2.75.

G2

In this group, we start to see more potential timeshare goalies. Teams such as Minnesota, Anaheim, and Ottawa possess unsettled goalie situations right now, but these teams could still all be playoff teams. The key is to either pick the right goalie, or to pick the “handcuff” option, a technique often used in other fantasy sports where waiver-wire options are limited, such as the closer or the running back, where the other player sharing the position is also added. Win totals will be harder to predict for this group of goalies, but their goals-against averages should be no more than 3.00. 

G3

Anything below this level is a goalie that you would be taking a flier on in the late rounds. You’ll see some names that have fallen from years past (Craig Anderson, Cam Ward), the starters of teams expected to finish last (Jhonas Enroth, Ben Scrivens), and even some sleepers (Jake Allen, Darcy Kuemper). If you don’t set your goalie rankings and miss your fantasy draft, you could end up with more than one of these goalies. The good news is that there seems to be at least one goalie per season in this tier that moves up to a G1 by the end of the season. However, picking a goalie from this pile is more lottery ticket than sure thing. Any other goalies that do not appear on the above colored list will fall into this category, such as Canucks’ short-term starter Eddie Lack or the unsigned Martin Brodeur or Ilya Bryzgalov. Many of these goalies are in danger of reaching goals-against averages of above 3.00 and save percentages of less than .900 – not exactly numbers that will help your fantasy team.