Bryzgalov Back, Stamkos Out

Because Ilya Bryzgalov happened to sign in Edmonton, you may have seen this clip dragged from the archives about his thoughts on the snow and cold there by now.

But it's a coincidence that on the same weekend that I took my son to the space centre, Ilya Bryzgalov has finally found a team, since I think this clip is actually his greatest hit and thanks to 24/7, what put him on the map as the league's flakiest goalie.

The past two seasons, however, Flyers fans and Bryzgalov owners haven't had anything to laugh about, as Bryzgalov failed to meet the pressure cooker expectations of his nine-year, $51 million contract. Speaking of contracts, those in a salary cap or auction format would have probably issued contracts relative to the one that the Flyers issued. For example, one league member paid $10 million on a four-year contract for Bryzgalov's services back in 2010 (which I am assuming was bought out - I couldn't find the information on that, though). When news of his Edmonton signing broke, I bid (and won) Bryzgalov for $750,000 on a one-year contract. There's a major difference in expectations between paying $10 million for something and paying $750,000 for something.

With that in mind, fantasy owners should take a flyer on Bryzgalov because there is not much to lose by doing so. At worst, he will be a timeshare option for the Oilers alongside the struggling Devan Dubnyk (3.92 GAA, .876 SV%). I am not naïve enough to suggest that Bryzgalov will save the Oilers' season. In fact, he could struggle even more than he did in Philly, given the Oilers' "junior hockey style of play" (according to Lars Eller). But also remember that he is not far off from some successful years in Phoenix; in fact, he averaged a 2.40 GAA and a .920 SV% in his last two seasons there. In other words, when making fantasy hockey roster decisions, look at the entire picture, not just what happened recently.

Switching gears, Steven Stamkos' broken leg on Monday will be a devastating blow for Lightning fans, his fantasy owners, and even possibly Team Canada. Can a broken tibia heal in three months, which is when the Olympics will start? If you take the word of Tampa Bay Rays orthopedist Koco Eaton, Stamkos won't be ready for the Olympics and could even be out for the season.

Rays team orthopedist Koco Eaton says, generally, rehab from surgery to repair a broken tibia can be as long as 6 to 9 months.
— Damian Cristodero (@LightningTimes) November 11, 2013

With that in mind, I'm going to provide my two cents' worth. In Grade 9 (ninth grade to my American readers), I fractured the exact same bone as Stamkos (on the same leg too!) in gym class playing soccer (a sport that I never played much nor was ever particularly good at). I had surgery that day, was in a cast for nearly two months, and was advised not to participate in gym class for three months (yay, got to miss square dancing!) Unless Stamkos' fractured tibia is worse than mine (or unless this uberfit NHLer is a slower healer than a skinny teenager), then in my estimation he would be back on skates within three months, given the medical technologies that an NHL team would possess in order to fast track their star player back into the lineup. Of course, I'm no doctor and my name is not Will Carroll, but I hope my experience will give us an idea on what Stamkos will face. For the NHL's sake, let's hope he is back on the ice soon.

In the meantime, his owners will have to make do somehow. The bad news is that there is no one on the waiver wire that will replicate Stamkos' production. The good news is that the center position is the deepest in all of fantasy hockey, so there's a good chance there's at least a player or two on your waiver wire that are fantasy roster ready. One such center who should benefit from Stamkos' absence is Valtteri Filppula, who is owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues (but owned in about two-thirds of CBS leagues). With 23 minutes of icetime in Monday's game against Boston, Filppula has already proven that he stands to receive the top-line minutes with Martin St. Louis. With 12 points in 17 games, Filppula should already be owned in most leagues, but you'll want to grab him right away if he isn't owned in yours.

Players I Have Added...

... at least since the last Players I Have Added article... in no particular order...

Mike Cammalleri, C, CGY
Being sidelined for the first few weeks of the NHL season meant that Cammalleri was left for dead in many leagues. However, he has returned with a vengeance, scoring four goals and three assists in the seven games since his return. The Flames have fallen back to earth after a scorching start, but remember that there is even fantasy value on the rebuilding teams. Cammalleri will continue to average at least 20 minutes of icetime, given the Flames' lack of NHL scoring options.

Carter Hutton, G, NSH
The Preds seem committed to Hutton as long as Pekka Rinne is sidelined, as Hutton has reeled off five consecutive starts. His numbers seem respectable (3-1-1-, 2.76 GAA, .914 SV%), so you could certainly do a lot worse if looking for a goalie from the waiver wire. Like as in, say, Cam Ward's replacement Justin Peters (0-5-0, 3.49 GAA, .890 SV%), a goalie I have avoided. For the record, Hutton's "backup" Magnus Hellberg has yet to make a start this season.

Jason Pominville, RW, MIN
I couldn't believe my luck when I saw Pominville, the NHL's First Star for the past week, there for the taking on my league's waiver wire. Six goals and eight points in his past four games made Pominville look very Ovechkin-like, whereas his current stat line makes him very Cy Young-like (see my tweet below from a few days ago - his record is now at 10-2).

Jason Pominville is an early Cy Young candidate (9-1).
— Ian Gooding (@Ian_Gooding) November 2, 2013

Robin Lehner, G, OTT
Lehner is only a short-term add as long as Craig Anderson is sidelined with a sore neck. He is confirmed to start Tuesday against Columbus (Goalie Post), so it only made sense that I handcuff him to Anderson. The good news for Anderson owners is that the injury doesn't seem to be as bad as it looked (watch below).

Dennis Wideman, D, CGY
True, the Flames don't have a ton of offense, so perhaps it makes sense that Wideman is third in team scoring with 10 points in 14 games. Plus how about this stat: Wideman is second in the NHL to only Ryan Suter with just over 28 minutes of icetime per game. These were the kind of minutes that Jay Bouwmeester was receiving before he was traded to St. Louis.

J.S. Giguere, G, COL
There are more important things in life than hockey, and for that matter, fantasy hockey. So would it not make sense for the Avalanche to let Semyon Varlamov take some time off and deal with his recent legal matter? If nothing else, the play of Giguere would allow the Avs to be in good hands while Patrick Roy's star pupil is away from the team. When he has been given the opportunity, Jiggy has found his old Mighty Ducks of Anaheim playoff form, posting an incredible 4-0-0 record with a 0.75 GAA and .977 SV%. Get him in whenever he plays and while the Avs are this hot.

Mika Zibanejad, C, OTT
We're starting to get into deep league pickup territory here. Zibanejad, the sixth pick overall in 2011 and one of the most difficult names to spell in the NHL, has points in four of six games since his callup from the AHL. Icetime may be an issue (14 minutes per game) playing behind centers Jason Spezza and Kyle Turris, but he's worth a flyer in anything bigger than a standard-sized league.

Tommy Wingels, C/RW, SJ
He has a name that sounds like an irritating cartoon character, but Wingels has been your friend if you're one of the few that has added him. A depth forward in San Jose with just under 15 minutes of icetime per game, Wingels already has ten points and a +8 this season, including points in each of his last three games. Wingels falls into the "don't expect this to last, but use him while he's hot" category.

Chris Higgins, LW, VAN
Injuries to numerous Canucks forwards have forced Higgins to a permanent role on the Canucks' top 6. With that, Higgins has averaged nearly 20 minutes of icetime with a very respectable five goals and three assists. Higgins is a marginal fantasy performer at best, but he makes a decent injury replacement for someone like Jeff Skinner or Teemu Selanne.

Have there been any other players that you have added that have helped you to early-season glory? Are there any players that I should have added to my team? Let us know below.

Quick Fantasy Take: Vanek for Moulson

An interesting stat pulled up by John Shannon of Sportsnet regarding the Matt Moulson/Thomas Vanek trade.

By the way, since joining the NYI in 2009, Moulson has 118 reg season goals...over that same time in Buffalo, Vanek has 110 Goals.
— John Shannon (@JSportsnet) October 28, 2013

I've read a number of different perspectives on the above trade, although I'll stick to evaluating it from a fantasy perspective. My initial reaction was that the trade will increase Vanek's value but will decrease Moulson's value, simply because one player will be playing alongside John Tavares and the other player won't be anymore.

That being said, it's possible that these locations won't be the final landing spots for both players this season. It's well-known that Vanek is on the final year of his contract, so he may wait for the offseason to have his pick of teams if the Islanders don't suit him. If he stays long-term on the Island/Brooklyn, this trade could be what catapults Vanek back up to the 40-goal mark.

Meanwhile, you might not need to feel sorry for Moulson for too long for being traded to Buffalo. He could become a very tempting trade piece for the obviously rebuilding Sabres as Darcy Regier attempts to save his job by stockpiling draft picks for the future. Moulson will demonstrate if he truly was a fluke if he can't find a way to reach 30 goals with Cody Hodgson or Tyler Ennis feeding him passes instead of Tavares, who is now a top-5 fantasy center.

Overall, I might suggest to attempt to trade Moulson while attempting to trade for Vanek.

My Fantasy Team Is More Injured Than Your Fantasy Team

Have a look below, in particular the number of players listed as injured.

 

... and now Cam Ward will be out 3 - 4 weeks with an upper-body injury. Great. Throw my arms up in the air. When will this end? Count 'em up, that's now eight injured players on my roster (although Kris Letang is expected to come off IR tomorrow and make his season debut.

 

Speaking of Ward, part of my strategy to hedge from injuries was to pick up the backups for Ward and Kari Lehtonen. I was forced to use Dan Ellis for about a week and a half while Lehtonen was injured, but at least I had a goalie at the ready. What do you do if the starter AND the backup (Anton Khudobin) are injured? Add third and fourth-stringers Justin Peters and Mike Murphy? Hey, those two are available. So are Carter Hutton and Magnus Hellberg in Nashville, now that Pekka Rinne is out a few weeks.

 

The craziest part? This team is not only 3-0 in head-to-head competition this season, but it is also winning this week. (The non-goalie starters for this team are showing below. To get the team all in one picture meant that the picture would be small and blurry. Maybe I need to take a Photoshop class or something.)

 

I am a little fortunate, though. My opponent this week has his own injury woes, as he has lost the services of Rinne and Loui Eriksson for the rest of the week and perhaps awhile longer.  

Players I Have Dropped Since the Start of the Season (Or At Least Am Thinking About Dropping)

Similar to the list of players that I have added since the start of the season, this is by no means a comprehensive list of droppable players. Who to drop depends on a host of factors, including the depth of your league and other players available. At the very least, here are a few players who have stumbled out of the gate, clearly not meeting expectations in some way, shape, or form.

Tim Thomas, G, FLA
I had added Timmy in the late rounds of one of my drafts, thinking there was a chance that he could recreate his 2011 magic. However, the Panthers are not even ten games into the season and already Thomas has been injured twice. It's not as if Thomas' numbers have been great anyway (2-3, 3.36 GAA, .901 SV%). Granted, it was just two short seasons ago that Thomas had one of the finest seasons that a goaltender can have, and there was no way that the Bruins would have won the Stanley Cup that season without him. However, taking a year off is not advisable for a 39-year-old goalie, and now we are seeing why. Moving from Boston to Florida isn't helping the cause either.

Tyson Barrie, D, COL
I haven't dropped Barrie, based on the league format that I employ him in. However, his league ownership in many leagues has to be sinking like a stone based on how Patrick Roy is using him (in other words, not using him). Barrie, a trendy blueline sleeper pick, has not seen action for the past five games dating back to October 10. As long as the surprising 8-1-0 Avs keep winning, Roy won't see any need to change his lineup, which means that relative unknowns Andre Benoit and Nate Guenin will continue to suit up instead of Barrie. I mean, how long can the Avs continue to dominate with Jan Hejda as the kingpin of their blueline?

Matt Read, RW, PHI
We go from a team on the top of the world to a team that has seen nothing go right this season. On a team that often draws attention to itself because of underachieving personnel, Read has quietly provided modest fantasy totals that can help you fill out your lineup. However, Read has yet to hit the scoresheet and is a -6 in eight games this season. Things have to improve; after all, Read is still averaging nearly 20 minutes of icetime per game. But playing on the Flyers' top 6 isn't holding the same value that it used to, given the Flyers' lack of scoring depth this season. By the way, over those eight games, the now Craig Berube-led Flyers have scored just 11 goals - that's right, ELEVEN goals - this season. That is tied for dead last in the NHL with the now Alain Vigneault-led Rangers.

Mikhail Grigorenko, C, BUF
The Sabres don't have a whole lot to laugh about themselves this season, having scored just one more goal than each of the Flyers and Rangers. In fact, the Sabres appear to be a serious contender for the first overall pick in the 2014 entry draft. So when you're a fourth-line player averaging ten minutes of icetime per game on a team headed nowhere, your fantasy prospects might appear dim. In the Experts League, I haven't dropped the pointless Grigorenko... yet. But come March when the Sabres trade Thomas Vanek and Ryan Miller and start playing for pride and jobs next season, don't be surprised to see the Sabres hand Grigorenko a little more icetime to see what they have.

Are there any players that you are ecstatic about kicking to the curb? Did I miss anyone obvious? Let us know in the comments below.

Players I Have Added Since the Start of the Season

Time can sure pass quickly in an NHL season. Since I last added something to this blog, some teams have already played ten games. What this means is that you can determine with some degree of certainty where your fantasy hockey team stands. In fact, you probably already have, assuming that you have made a trip to the waiver wire at least once, as most astute fantasy hockey leaguers have.

Perhaps the easiest way for me to write a fantasy hockey article is to write about what is happening on my own teams - in other words, what I have noticed with my own eyes. So this list of players that I have added is by no means a comprehensive list of players that were not on draft cheatsheets and have since been universally added in fantasy leagues everywhere.

Tomas Hertl, C, SJ
Yes, Hertl of the four-goal game. Yes, Hertl of the sick goal that everyone was talking about and some thought "broke the code." After that hat trick plus one, fantasy owners nearly crashed their league IT systems as they scrambled to add Hertl, assuming that another four-goal performance would soon follow. But the important thing here is, what has Hertl accomplished since that breakout performance? How about a more modest goal and two assists in six games. That's still enough for Hertl to be tied for the league lead in goals (7) with four other players. In spite of the return to reality, Hertl is still worth rostering in all formats.

Kevin Bieksa, D, VAN
I'm not just saying this as a Canucks fan, but I'm surprised that Bieksa is not owned in more fantasy leagues. His offense (four assists in ten games) hasn't been that great, but he picked up three of those helpers in an impressive game on Saturday against Pittsburgh. But he has a solid +7, and may lead your fantasy team in hits (22). In addition, the John Tortorella mandate to block every shot directed at a Canucks goalie will also help Bieksa in that department. But as a Canucks fan, I also worry that all these blocked shots will lead to more injuries to the Canucks' more physical players such as Bieksa and Ryan Kesler.

Lars Eller, C, MON
The man burdened with the pressure of being the player in return for Jaroslav Halak is finally starting to come through. Eller currently leads the Habs with five goals and is second on the team with eight points with a +5. With injuries to Daniel Briere and Max Pacioretty, expect Eller to continue to receive top-6 minutes. He has found great chemistry with Brendan Gallagher and Alex Galchenyuk on what looks like the Habs' top line of the future.

Teemu Selanne, RW, ANA
I have to love Yahoo this season. They have finally allowed fantasy owners to deal with the dreaded "day-to-day" roster designations from teams. If a player was not placed on IR by his team, a fantasy owner could not move the player to IR and had to keep a valuable roster spot open for that player - dead weight in daily leagues in particular. But thanks to the IR+ designation, I'm able to replace the concussed Lubomir Visnovsky and concussed (I think) Dan Boyle with healthy bodies - one of which is Selanne. Yeah, I knew I'd eventually get to the ageless wonder here. He is proving for fantasy owners that he still has something in the tank, scoring goals in three consecutive games for the scorching-hot-out-of-the-gate Ducks.

Jason Demers, D, SJ
Speaking of injuries to the defense, can you believe that I have Boyle, Visnovsky, and Kris Letang all on one team? And that that very same team is also 3-0 in head-to-head play? Yes, said team is becoming extremely thin on defense, so I was forced to add whatever defenseman I could on Sunday, the day that we are allowed to bid on players. I lost out on Letang injury beneficiary Matt Niskanen, who has already recorded six points and a +9 in the nine games Letang has been out. But I was able to add Demers, who has five assists and a +5 in nine games of his own. In a similar spot to Niskanen, Demers is currently receiving first-unit power-play time with Boyle sidelined. But once the first-string power-play QB returns for both Pittsburgh and San Jose, expect the values of both Niskanen and Demers to drop.

Mike Ribeiro, C, PHX
Ribeiro is a perfect example of why you should not be too impatient with a player, particularly in the early going. After being held off the scoresheet in his first three games, Ribs is currently running a six-game point streak, with his last game being a two-goal effort on Saturday against the Wings. Every so often one of these kinds of players is dropped in a league, and you have to be the first one to pounce on the opportunity.

Have there been any other players that you have added that have helped you to early-season glory? Are there any players that I should have added to my team (even though I must say that I'm faring extremely well in my leagues right now, unlike my fantasy football teams)? Let me know below.

Some More Yahoo Rankings

I finally found a bit of time to go onto the Yahoo site last night to set some pre-draft rankings. In my last post, I was looking strictly at players way down the list that could provide much higher payoffs than their rankings would project. This time, I'm going to focus on the early-round picks: both players that should be ranked higher or lower. After all, remember the year when Yahoo ranked Bobby Ryan #9? I mean, Ryan is a good player and all, but he has never done anything to justify that ranking. (In case you're wondering, Yahoo has the new Senator ranked at #41 this season, a ranking that I believe is fair.)

Raise them up

Claude Giroux, C/RW, PHI (16): If Giroux is able to return from his freak hand injury as early as Tuesday (still the preseason), shouldn't you bump him up a little? If he starts the season on time, the point-per-game scorer is easily worth a top 10 pick. (Philly.com)

Corey Perry, RW, ANA (23): Perry was a top-10 pick and 50-goal scorer not so long ago. Although I'm not saying he will reach those number again this season, he should be counted on for at least 30 goals and 100 penalty minutes again. That should at least move him up a little.

Erik Karlsson, D, OTT (32): If P.K. Subban is ranked #17, shouldn't Karlsson be ranked higher? I'm not necessarily saying Subban should be ranked lower. The last two Norris Trophy winners, who you can count on for near point-per-game numbers, should be ranked a little closer together. Like Giroux, an injury pushes Karlsson down the rankings. For the same reason, perhaps Kris Letang (35) could be ranked higher too.

Roberto Luongo, G, VAN (50): All you 7uongo fans will laugh at me, I'm sure. But Luongo's regular season numbers are always better than his playoff numbers. In addition, he won't be challenged for starts by anyone this season. I'd certainly rank him higher than Braden Holtby or Marc-Andre Fleury, which Yahoo has not done.

Logan Couture, C/LW, SJ (81): Couture is the future franchise player for the Sharks. Scoring 21 goals in 48 games is a notable accomplishment. Left wing is the thinnest of the forward positions, so he is valuable if he holds onto that eligibility.

Lower them down

Craig Anderson, G, OTT (21): I loved picking Anderson when he was ranked something like 140. On that note, picking him at that spot helped me win the Experts League last season. But I get the feeling that he will only disappoint if you draft him this high. Like he does every year, he will probably face a million shots, and you'll have to hope that only a few of them go in.

Sergei Bobrovsky, G, CBJ (24): Remember that it wasn't so long ago that it was wrong to go near any Columbus goalie in fantasy? I guess I'm not quite as big a fan of Bobrovsky as Jay Onrait. He will probably get drafted this high anyway, since the goalie run in most drafts starts fairly early.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, EDM (63): The latest news on the Nuge is the seven-year contract that he signed with the Oils. However, don't forget that he is expected to miss the first month of the season following offseason shoulder surgery.

Derek Stepan, C, NYR (72): I usually lower contract holdout players for the same reason that I lower injured players. Although Stepan was a near point-per-game scorer last season (44 points), Darren Dreger doesn't seem to think that the contract will be ready in time for the season opener.

Did I miss any players? Do you agree/disagree with my choices? Feel free to comment below.