Wednesday, 3 September 2014

Sleepers - Defense and Goalies



Unlike forwards, defensemen and goaltenders tend not to burst onto the scene right away, as they need time to fine-tune the defensive responsibilities that they have to their team. But here are some players that you could target in the mid to late rounds of your draft that have the upside to produce beyond their preseason draft ranking.

Tyson Barrie, D, COL
After a 38-point breakout season, Barrie should already be on the fantasy radar. However, keep in mind that his total was over only 64 games. Barrie started the season with a minor role under new coach Patrick Roy’s system, and he even spent some time in the AHL following numerous healthy scratches. Once he was able to find his way back, it was full speed ahead. The only downside is that Barrie is currently an RFA without a contract, which is something to keep in mind when drafting him.

Christian Ehrhoff, D, PIT
During the past three seasons in Buffalo, Ehrhoff was more fantasy bust than fantasy stud. However, that could change with a move to the Penguins. Last season was especially disastrous for Ehrhoff, who recorded a -27 for the visibly rebuilding Sabres. After being “rewarded” with a buyout from the Sabres, Ehrhoff signed a one-year contract with the Pens to provide yet another weapon for a team that already boasted the league’s top power play last season.  

Derrick Pouliot, D, PIT
Pouliot is good enough for the NHL right now, according to Pens’ new coach Mike Johnston (ProHockeyTalk). Pouliot won’t be such a sure thing to crack the Pens’ roster, but it is worth mentioning that Johnston was also Pouliot’s junior coach. It’s not often that a defenseman scores over a point per game in any league, but Pouliot managed to do so for Portland in the WHL last season (70 points in 58 games). Remember Pouliot’s name in keeper leagues if he doesn’t crack the roster this season. Both Pouliot and fellow young defenseman Olli Maatta are recovering from offseason surgery, but the Pens now have offensive firepower from the blueline that is the envy of just about any team. 

Seth Jones, D, NSH
Young defensemen usually need some time before they develop into bona fide NHL stars (anyone drafting Aaron Ekblad this season should keep this in mind). Jones was no different last season, scoring 25 points with a -23 last season. Jones should only improve this season, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be in the Preds’ top four. Even as a rookie, Jones was able to average nearly 20 minutes of icetime per game. 

Jacob Trouba, D, WPG
In his first NHL season, Trouba demonstrated moments of brilliant play and perhaps would have been a fantasy add if not for an injury that sidelined him for a month. As it was, Trouba scored 29 points in 65 games in 22 minutes of icetime. The Jets aren’t especially deep on the blueline, so expect Trouba to improve on that icetime number this season. Trouba also can provide value in hits and blocked shots.

Jake Muzzin, D, LA
To statheads, old-school writers such as Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun are Public Enemy #1. Simmons is known more for picking on Mikhail Grabovski, but another player he has singled out recently is Muzzin, who he describes as being the “second best Corsi player… who benefits primarily by being Drew Doughty’s partner” (Toronto Sun). You can’t deny that a player’s fantasy value is at least somewhat tied to other players who are on the ice at the same time, though. Muzzin is a viable option in fantasy leagues that count hits (169 last season), and his six goals in 26 playoff games last season mean that he is capable of reaching a double-digit goal total this season. 

John Gibson, G, ANA
Gibson played only three regular-season games for the Ducks last season, yet he may be ready to take over as the team’s starting goalie this season. The Ducks turned to Gibson in Game 4 of the second round of the playoffs, and Gibson delivered with a shutout. With Jonas Hiller off to Calgary, Gibson will battle with Frederik Andersen for the starting goalie job. Expect the two to split time, at least in the beginning, but Gibson’s strong play in the World Juniors would make it seem that he is the Ducks’ goalie of the future. 

Jake Allen, G, STL
As in Gibson’s situation, the exit of an established starting goalie creates an opportunity for Allen. Also like Gibson, Allen starred in the World Juniors and earned a gold medal. Allen was the AHL’s goalie of the year last season, leading the league with 33 wins, a 2.03 goals-against average, a .928 save percentage, and seven shutouts. Unfortunately like Gibson, he may need to split time with another established NHL goalie, which in Allen’s case is Brian Elliott. But as I mentioned in my previous article, I believe Allen is the goalie the Blues turn to come playoff time.

Friday, 29 August 2014

Yahoo Draft Rankings – Players Ranked Too High



We continue along in our study of the Yahoo draft rankings, only this time focusing on players who may have been a little overvalued by the rankers. Keep in mind that these are not players that I would be avoiding entirely, but these are simply players who I would not draft at their present pre-draft ranking. If others in my league were to agree and these players were to fall a few rounds, however, I would not hesitate to add one of these players to my team. 

In the end, try not to be fixated on adding certain players to your team. Any draft is fluid and can change suddenly. After all, how many times has the person picking before you picked the player you were about to add? An important key to a strong team is to ensure value with every player you draft.

James Neal, LW/RW, NSH (Yahoo rank: 35)
Of all the players who changed teams in the offseason, is there any one player whose fantasy value decreased more than Neal’s? Sure, Peter Laviolette plays more of an up-tempo style than Barry Trotz does. But Neal goes from having Evgeni Malkin center him to what, Derek Roy? Mike Ribeiro? Olli Jokinen? Mike Fisher, once he returns from injury? Neal’s value isn’t as necessarily tied to any one player as former teammate Chris Kunitz is to Crosby, but he is the only legitimate first liner on a Nashville team that has never been strong in the scoring department. Expect decent numbers, but nowhere near his first team All-Star level from two years ago (40 goals, 41 assists).

Rick Nash, LW/RW, NYR (Yahoo rank: 51)
Aside from 26 goals and 258 shots on goal last season, Nash didn’t provide a whole lot for fantasy owners. In fact, this has mirrored Nash’s production throughout his career, where the goals outnumber the assists. You will need to find your assists elsewhere if you draft Nash, but I have a problem with any skater who recorded just 13 assists in the previous season (in 65 games, mind you) being ranked in the top 50. Just ask anyone who owned Nash last season if they would draft him in that spot again. And like Neal, Nash lacks an elite center to pass him the puck, with Derek Stepan being the closest that they have to one.

Patrice Bergeron, C, BOS (Yahoo rank: 54)
I had a friendly debate with fantasy hockey writer Darren on this one, as he suggested a best-case scenario of 75 points, 240 shots, and a +25 for Bergeron. Don’t get me wrong: Bergeron is an outstanding two-way player who has been key to the success of both the Boston Bruins and Team Canada. His plus/minus and shots on goal totals should once again be terrific. But I’ve always thought that his responsibilities as a defensive shutdown faceoff specialist limit his offensive ceiling. In other words, I’m more sold on him as a real-life option than a fantasy option. 

Ryan Kesler, C, ANA (Yahoo rank: 68)
If you happen to believe that the Canucks got fleeced on the Kesler trade, consider the following:
Ryan Kesler, 2013-14: 77 GP, 25 G, 18 A, 43 Pts, -15
Nick Bonino, 2013-14: 77 GP, 22 G, 27 A, 49 Pts, +14
For what it’s worth, Bonino’s Yahoo rank is 184. Kesler believes he has a better chance of winning the Stanley Cup in Anaheim than in Vancouver, which is probably true. However, the super confident Kesler is only fooling himself (and so are you) if he believes he is reaching the 70-point mark once again. Every injury adds further wear and tear to his body, potentially increasing his number of games missed. The Canucks were wise to quickly sell this depreciating asset who didn’t want to be part of a semi-rebuild. You’d be wise to steer clear of Kesler at his normal draft position. 

Brian Elliott, G, STL (Yahoo rank: 69)
You could argue that there isn’t as much risk taking Elliott in this spot as there is in picking a goalie in the early-round “goalie run” that seems to occur at every draft. However, I believe that the Blues did not seriously attempt to resign Ryan Miller because Jake Allen is officially ready for NHL duty. Allen was the AHL’s goaltender of the year last season with a 2.03 GAA and .928 SV%, which suggests that the Blues will give him a long look this season. Elliott is simply keeping the seat warm for Allen, who I believe will be the goalie the Blues ride in their playoff run this season.

Ryan McDonagh, D, NYR (Yahoo rank: 90)
Like Bergeron, McDonagh’s game translates much better at a real level than at a fantasy level. Quite possibly the future captain of the Rangers, McDonagh reached a career-high 43 points last season. His shots on goal total isn’t bad for a defenseman, and he’ll probably receive more minutes than any other Rangers defenseman. However, there simply isn’t enough there to use a top-100 pick. Wait until later to add him if he’s still around. 

Matt Niskanen, D, WAS (Yahoo rank: 94)
Niskanen was able to parlay a career-best 46 point, +33 stat line to a hefty free agent contract in Washington. So what often happens to players with career-high totals who cash in afterward? A first-year letdown, that’s what. I owned Niskanen in a deep league for the two years prior, and he was barely able to keep his spot in my team’s starting lineup. To properly assess a player, look beyond the previous season. Maybe he’s for real; maybe he isn’t. But overall, this ranking is a little inflated.

Yahoo Draft Rankings – Players Ranked Too Low



Every year when fantasy hockey leagues open for registration, the pre-draft rankings are a source of much debate. This year is no different, as fantasy hockey regulars have already noticed many players that could be ranked differently. Personally, I believe that the folks at Yahoo (via the folks at Rotowire) have performed well in what is a much more difficult job than many armchair coaches can comprehend (I know this because I handled the rankings at fantasyhockey.com for several years). In fact, I had a more difficult time finding holes in Yahoo’s rankings this season than I have in previous years.

That being said, there are at least a few players that perhaps could have been ranked higher. Based on my experience, you’ll want to pay particular attention to unnoticed players buried deep in the rankings that can provide considerable value to your team. These are the kind of players that have your leaguemates say, “Oh yeah, I forgot about him,” or the short abbreviation “NP” (nice pick), which is often used in draft chatrooms.

Martin St. Louis, RW, NYR (Yahoo rank: 59)
I understand the drop in value from previous seasons. Here is a guy who is 39 years old and is no longer lining up with Steven Stamkos. However, remember that St. Louis could still maintain his point-per-game pace when Stamkos was injured last season. The Rangers aren’t one of the league’s stronger offensive teams, and St. Louis only scored 8 points in 19 games with his new club last season. However, many fantasy owners have bet against Mighty Mite year after year in fantasy drafts, yet he has continued to prove those who bet against him wrong. 

Nicklas Backstrom, C, WAS (Yahoo rank: 70)
The Capitals were a plus/minus tire fire last season. You may remember Ovechkin’s horrendous -35 ranking, but it is worth mentioning that his linemate Backstrom was a -20 himself. Enter defensive guru Barry Trotz, whose mere presence should improve that number. Backstrom’s ranking no doubt fell because of the plus/minus, because he is also a point-per-game player. And point-per-game players should not be ranked at number 70.

Henrik Sedin, C, VAN (Yahoo rank: 72)
I will probably leave myself open for debate on this one when I mention both Sedins. Having watched the Canucks more than any other team last season, I can tell you that John Tortorella is the worst thing that could have happened to the Sedins, along with many other Canucks. Lengthy dry spells last season pushed the Sedins down to where they are now (Daniel, the goal scorer at LW, is ranked 62, so he should be higher than Henrik). I’m not here to suggest that they will return to 100 points again, but a near point-per-game pace is not completely out of the question. 

Kris Letang, D, PIT (Yahoo rank: 77)
This is a personal favorite of Franklin Steele, and I have to agree with him on this one. Tanger is a high injury risk, in particular the doubt about his playing future after the stroke he suffered late last season. However, he seems completely recovered from the stroke, so as long as he’s not battling any other kind of injury, he will get you points. He is no longer in the Erik Karlsson-P.K. Subban category of elite fantasy defensemen, but Franklin and I both agree that you should grab him in the fifth round if he’s still available.

David Clarkson, RW, TOR (Yahoo rank: 324)
We are now in the territory of the players buried deep in the Yahoo rankings that could make their way onto many rosters this season. Even delusional Leaf fans may agree that Clarkson is actually deserving of the ranking he currently holds. So he couldn’t be any worse than he was last season, right? Remember that it was only three seasons ago when Clarkson scored 30 goals and recorded triple-digit penalty minutes with the Devils. After all, there had to have been a reason the Leafs signed him to that enormous contract.

Kevin Bieksa, D, VAN (Yahoo rank: 328)
Bieksa was yet another player who suffered under John Tortorella (even more so: Alex Edler), but every year he provides decent point totals along with solid penalty minutes. Bieksa’s playing style lends itself to at least a few games out of the lineup each season due to injury, but he’s a solid fourth defenseman that you can use to fill out your roster. He should also see additional power-play time following the offseason departure of Jason Garrison.

Matt Carle, D, TB (Yahoo rank: 369)
A grand total of two goals will probably push any player’s ranking down the charts. However, Carle has proven to be a 35-40 point defenseman throughout his career. With such a dynamic offensive attack in T-Bay, there’s no reason that Carle can’t put up similar point totals again. Keep him in mind as another possibility to fill out your defense. 

Mike Richards, C, LA (Yahoo rank: 389)
Richards has sacrificed personal point totals in order to earn two Stanley Cup rings, recording just 41 points over a full 82 games last season in the Kings’ bottom six. However, remember that he is only an injury or two away from returning to his former role as a top-6 forward. He’s worth keeping an eye on, considering that he was a 60-80 point player during his final four seasons as a Flyer. Also keep in mind that the Kings were 26th in goals scored during the 2013-14 regular season, so line juggling is always a possibility. 

Tell us below which players you think Yahoo should have ranked more generously.

Friday, 22 August 2014

Fantasy Hockey Is Back (and So Are the Rankings)

In case you hadn't heard already, Yahoo Fantasy Hockey is back in business for the upcoming season. With it are the Yahoo top 100 rankings, no doubt subject to change and plenty of argument. So I set out to be the man on the street (except using Twitter instead of a street) to ask for Twitter's thoughts. Here are some excerpts of the lengthy conversation that I started:



Feel free to continue the discussion below or on the Twitter conversation. And remember, it's all about your league settings too.