Bearing Down on the Fantasy Hockey Season

Well, I'm back, it's been awhile. I've been too busy with work and being a father and more work and more being a father. It's funny how I finally get caught up here on, of all weekends, Labour Day.

So what has happened since then? Not a whole lot in the hockey world, except that fantasy hockey leagues are officially opening up again. In only one short month, the puck will drop on the NHL season. I don't know if I'm as ready as I have been in previous seasons. My leaguemates will be thrilled to read that, no doubt. After all, I can remember spending much of July and August preparing the draft guide for fantasyhockey.com in hopes that it would be ready at the start of September.

I did say in my last posting that I would mention the Boston Bruins in my next posting. Since that time, I was able to stumble upon an article from SLAM! Sports about Milan Lucic reaching out to his new teammate Jarome Iginla during the recent Team Canada orientation camp. The article mentioned that Lucic and Iginla would likely be centered by David Krejci on the Bruins' top line, which got me thinking about what the Bruins' top six would likely look like.

Milan Lucic - David Krejci - Jarome Iginla
Brad Marchand - Patrice Bergeron - Loui Eriksson

Honestly, I can't see the proposed second line differing much from the top line in terms of icetime.

Given that time does not take it easy on aging power forwards, Iginla's production would have to be considered less than point-per-game, which we caught a glimpse of last season (33 points in 44 games). In other words, let him slide at least a round or two later than you've picked him in previous seasons, even if he is now on a better team and on that team's first line. You probably will anyway, given that Yahoo has Iggy ranked at a surprisingly low 123. I mean, c'mon, nudge him up just a little. But not to the top 50. (Interesting footnote: Vincent Lecavalier is ranked right next to Iggy at 124. Remember this dandy from the 2004 finals? Bob Cole called the game, and he likes the word "dandy," although I don't think he and Harry Neale thought that the two superstars fighting was a dandy idea.)

Lucic is an interesting case. A host on the local sports talk radio station here in Vancouver called Lucic "an elite player," something that I'd have to disagree with given his output last season. I know that a lot of players were messed up by the shortened season, but seven goals in 46 games, including a 15-game goalless drought, is what you'd expect from Dustin Penner, not an elite player. Having said that, Looch was a 60-point and 100-penalty minute player the previous two seasons, and you should probably draft him that way. (By the way, click on my friend Chris Wassel's interesting article on fantasy categories that should possibly go the way of the tie game.)

Since I mentioned how Tyler Seguin's fantasy value would be affected by the move to Dallas, I should probably also write about the player coming the other way. As listed above, Eriksson figures to play on a line with two-way player extraordinaire Patrice Bergeron and little rat extraordinaire Brad Marchand, a line that will probably pile up the plus/minus by combining air-tight defensive play with solid offensive production. (Hey, there's that article again about fantasy categories that might one day fly away like the Atlanta Thrashers.) Eriksson's numbers dipped a little with the shortened season (29 points in 48 games), but remember that he was a 25-goal, 70-point guy in each of the previous three seasons.

I'm sure you won't need to wait nearly as long for my next posting.

Trading Tyler

The recent blockbuster trade that sent Tyler Seguin to the Dallas Stars should be viewed as somewhat of a surprise, considering that the former second overall pick had just completed only his third NHL season with the Boston Bruins. That being said, Seguin's alleged hard-partying ways and social media irresponsibility didn't sit well with the Bruins' disciplined off-ice system. Trading Seguin makes sense to a degree for the contending Bruins, who haven't been forced to rush Seguin to the NHL the same way the rebuilding Oilers have with their recent first overall picks. With that in mind, it's a wonder Seguin was able to score 67 points (29g-38a) in his sophomore season while averaging under 17 minutes of icetime per game.

Perhaps a slight decline in production played a role in Seguin's departure, as he would have averaged only 55 points if the NHL played a full season last season, plus an underwhelming 8 points in 22 playoff games. However, with Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci firmly entrenched as the Bruins' top two centers, Seguin's only hope of top-6 minutes would rest on a move to the right side, away from his natural center position. The good news about the move to Dallas is that Seguin is expected to move back to center, with natural winger Jamie Benn moving away from the center position. Expect new Stars' coach Lindy Ruff to match Seguin and Benn together on the Stars' top line, possibly alongside this year's first-round pick Valeri Nichushkin (provided he doesn't summon his inner Ilya Kovalchuk by staying in Russia).

Considering that Seguin never averaged more than 17 minutes of icetime per game in his three seasons with Boston, he seems ready for a huge boost in icetime with his new team. Increased minutes mean the potential for more points plus more power-play points (24 PPP over his three seasons in Boston), but his double-digit plus/minus (+57 over his last two seasons) seems unlikely for a Stars team that will probably be a bubble playoff team yet again. A total of 60 points over a full season seems like a strong bet, with the upside for a lot more if he and Benn find the right chemistry. Seguin still has significant keeper value, although for purely selfish reasons I'll be praying that Ruff experiments with him enough at the thinner RW position in order to maintain eligibility at that position (I already have an abundance of centers on my keeper team).

Would a rebound season in Dallas mean that the Bruins gave up too soon? If so, expect the Joe Thornton references to resurface, not to mention rumblings from Leafland that they in fact won the Phil Kessel trade. But can a team be rewarded by being patient with a talented yet immature player? Look no further than the results Patrick Kane and P.K. Subban last season. This trade could come back to haunt the Bruins if they fail to hoist a Stanley Cup sometime over the next few seasons.

Next, I'll look at the Seguin trade from a Boston perspective and also attempt to describe what the addition of Jarome Iginla could mean for the Bruins.